ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01410.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01411.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01412.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01413.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01414.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

If the point of view is adopted that in calculations of real‐world phenomena we almost invariably have significant uncertainty in the numerical values of our parameters, then, in these calculations, numerical quantities should be replaced by probability distributions and mathematical operations between these quantities should be replaced by analogous operations between probability distributions. Also, practical calculations one way or another always require discretization or truncation. Combining these two thoughts leads to a numerical approach to probabilistic calculations having great simplicity, power, and elegance. The philosophy and technique of this approach is described, some pitfalls are pointed out, and an application to seismic risk assessment is outline

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01415.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Records of nonoccurrence of catastrophic accidents from technologically based industrial operations, such as nuclear power generation and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation are sometimes cited as evidence of the safety of such operations. The appropriateness and inappropriateness of different types of models of accident processes for these systems are discussed. Selectivity biases in defining both die numerator and denominator for accident rates are shown to be important to the size of the estimated rate and these are illustrated by examples. Inferential approaches to estimating a rate based on zero occurrences are briefly discussed. The conclusion reached is that a record of zero occurrences is of cold comfort in ruling out catastrophic events. Experience, unless it is interpreted by strong models and assumptions, helps little to establish very small probabilities of a catastrophe.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01416.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A method is presented for projecting mortality rates for certain causes on the basis of observed rates during past years. This method arose from a study of trends in age‐specific mortality rates for respiratory cancers, and for heuristic purposes it is shown how the method can be developed from certain theories of cancer induction. However, the method is applicable in the more common situation in which the underlying physical processes cannot be modeled with any confidence but the mortality rates are approximable over short time intervals by functions of the formaexp(bt), wherebmay vary in a continuous, predictable fashion as the time interval is varied. It appears from applications to historical data that this projection method is in some cases a substantial improvement over conventional curve‐fitting methods and often uncovers trends which are not apparent from observed d

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01417.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The basic characteristics of determining acceptable risk are discussed. Technical, political, and social aspects of the problem add much complexity. The appropriate manner to reach responsible decisions regarding acceptable risk is suggested. This explicitly addresses the alternatives, the objectives, the uncertainty, and the values which constitute the information necessary to arrive at any solution. The inappropriateness of many “solutions” currently in use or “suggested” is

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01418.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY