摘要:

AbstractThe technique of screening‐regression analysis is applied to forecasting the monsoon performance (percentage rainfall departure) over India from the immediately preceding May's meteorological variables. The resulting prediction equation with five variables performed well, with a few exceptions, on independent data. The forecasting scheme shows some promise of providing a useful forecast of monsoon rainfall departures over India before the beginning of the seaso

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes some ways in which global simulation models of relationships between envrionment, economics and population, might be used to examine the impacts of climate change on the world food system. The paper presents an analysis of the response of the International Futures Simulation model to changes in crop yields as a surrogate for climate. This sensitivity analysis provides a range of scenarios of how global and regional food systems might respond to a variety of climate changes. It also demonstrates how these models can respond in an unrealistic or unstable way to certain types of variation. The analysis provides some insight into the complex responses of actual food systems to changes in food production.

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractVarious ‘objective’ methods of classifying the atmospheric circulation are compared in order to determine whether the different methods result in similar groupings of circulation types, and also to examine the question of how much subjectivity is present in each of the typing schemes. The results indicate a high degree of subjectivity within each approach and that the different classification schemes do give rise to the production of different synoptic types. A method which groups days based on the sum of squares difference between cases (Kirchhofer method) gives the best overall classification, but only classifies 80 per cent of the days. A technique that clusters days based on principal component scores gives a larger mean sum of squares difference between the type patterns and the individual cases, but classifies all of the d

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractStudies of diurnal variation in the planetary radiation budget parameters from space are possible only with observations from geosynchronous satellites. Such studies are necessary to establish possible bias in the radiation budget estimates derived currently from polar orbiting satellites. This paper outlines a preliminary approach to estimate the diurnal variation of the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere, using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible (0.55–0.75 μm) and IR window (10.5–12.5 μm) observations. Model development and analysis used GOES‐E data for the summer of 1982. This paper is the first to report monthly averaged diurnal variations in the planetary radiation budget parameters for several months. The possible error in the daily mean net radiation when derived from one observation per day instead of hourly observations, was also estimated. Computational experiments were conducted with different calibration techniques to assess the possible bias error in the quantities derived due to cali

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractDaily totals of solar ultraviolet‐B (300–316 nm) and fullband (300–3000 nm) radiation were measured over 18 months at Sutton Bonington in the English Midlands. A relation was established between the little‐measured but biologically active UVB waveband and the routinely recorded full solar radiation. A linear relation between the ratio of energy in the two wavebands and the cosine of the zenith angle at noon enables the UVB irradiation to be estimated from the full waveband. Information about ozone amounts, either daily values or monthly means, allows the estimates to be i

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractMinimum air temperature measurements and airborne thermal scanner measurements of apparent surface temperature were obtained in a regional frost risk study in gently undulating grazing country in the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia.The minimum air temperature data obtained at 7 sites on 100 nights have been used to derive a predictive relationship between temperature lapse rate and night‐time wind speed and net radiation loss. An extended network was used on 30 nights using an additional 24 sites. Excellent agreement was observed between the lapse rates collected from both the 7‐station and 31‐station networks on 24 nights.Maps of minimum air temperature across the region have been obtained for selected individual nights using Laplacian smoothing spline functions based on elevation and map co‐ordinates.Thermal scanner data were obtained with an aircraft on two nights and the paper presents detailed comparisons between apparent surface temperature data and minimum air temperatures obtained from the regional maps.These comparisons have made it possible to successfully distinguish between broad topographic controls and the effect of local surface characteristics, especially in the case of high‐resolution thermal scanner data. Such local controls include the effects of trees, surface water and various man‐made features, as well as very local topographic features such as narrow depressions, which are only noticeable from site surveys and detailed aerial photography. It is concluded that thermal imagery is an important aid in understanding spatial distribution patterns of night‐time air temperatures and hence in regional frost ri

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060407

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA near continuous record of avalanche deaths in Norway is compiled for 130 years from 1855, and shows a distinct downward trend, but large variations from winter to winter, with a periodicity of 12–13 years. Twelve major avalanche winters are selected, and their synoptic climatology examined using Grosswetterlagen, an index of atmospheric circulation over southern Norway, and monthly sea level pressure anomaly maps. More than one climatological pattern is needed to explain these winters. Major avalanche winters tend to be cold in December and/or January, and have more meridional and less mixed weather types compared with minor avalanche winters. Some have enhanced north or east circulations associated with large anomalies in the semi‐permanent pressure systems. Others display intense anticyclonic blocking near Britain that maintains sustained west to north‐west airflows onto Norway. A switch in circulation pattern from these to a more southerly regime is also important. These aspects of synoptic climatology are related to the mechanisms for producing big avala

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060408

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractAlthough changing economic, conditions suggest a growing potential for the business application of weather and climate information, the actual use of that information will be affected by its suitability for decision‐making purposes. This article suggests the use of decision analytic techniques for evaluating the appropriatenesses and value of weather and climate information. The conceptual steps involved in this process are defined. The need for interdisciplinary modelling efforts to determine the economic use of weather and climate information is illustrated for an agricultural exampl

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060409

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060410

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0196-1748    

DOI:10.1002/joc.3370060401

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY