ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040302

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis report starts by surveying a series of papers that are representative of recent U.S. work on national and international energy policy. Among professional analysts, there are the beginnings of a consensus on energy demand projections and on energy‐economy interactions. Moreover, it is recognized that conservation policies will be difficult to implement unless domestic prices are raised to the international level.The paper includes a series of long‐term energy projections based upon ETA‐MACRO. This model allows for: energy‐economy interactions, cost‐effective conservation and interfuel substitution between electric and nonelectric energy. the calculations are based upon a somewhat less optimistic view of synthetic fuels and of ‘backstop’ technologies than appear in the Carter Administration's recent proposals. With synfuels, backstops and nuclear energy—and with realistically reduced projections of demand growth—there is a reasonable prospect that the U.S. could meet an international commitment to limit oil and gas imports.U.S. import reductions could be achieved directly through the market price mechanism, without tariffs or quota limitations. For this to happen, however, the international price of oil would have to be doubled (in constant dollar terms) by the year 2000. A policy of gradual OPEC oil price increases would facilitate the transition away from oil, and could serve the long‐run interests of both the producing an

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040303

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe era of accelerating fuel us accompanied by fall in price is contrasted with the more recent advent of environmental awareness, and of conservation methods directed towards reducing energy consumption. the nature of the trade‐off between energy conserving equipment and fuel saving is compared with that between environmental damage costs and abatement costs. It is shown that society tends to operate at levels of conservation and pollution abatement which are well short of the optimum in each case. Householders require a very high return on conservation measures and utilities underestimate environmental damage. the parallel between factory reform legislation and modern standards setting is drawn. Simulation modelling is argued to have a role in showing the presence of market imperfections, discovering the magnitude of the effects deriving from the imperfections, and examining alternative instruments for overcoming the imperfections. In illustration of such simulation modelling, results of projections from the Energy Demand Projection model of the Systems Analysis Research Unit are give

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040304

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractMany governments are at present attempting to formulate energy strategies for ensuring future supplies. the debate over nuclear power is continuing and ‘pollution‐free’ alternative energy sources are also being considered. Points for and against each of the possible energy sources are discussed here and the possible hazards of nuclear power (e.g. radioactivity) are compared with the possible dangers of ‘free‐energy’ sources (e.g. an increased ‘greenhouse’ effect). the importance of an integrated energy policy is stressed. Such a policy does not rely on a single energy source but utilizes the full spectrum of possibilities and can incorporate the more immediate concepts of

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040305

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe use of the Reference Energy System concept as a versatile simplified method of assessing the impact of technological change is presented. Its use directly for judgemental analysis, to demonstrate the results of more complex analyses, and its role in providing a readily understandable baseline provide an ideal vehicle for analyses which do not warrant the expense or complexity of more detailed models.

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040306

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe computer program FREDOCAN allows one to assess the impact of energy conservation policies on the household sector due to thermal insulation measures and to various options concerning domestic heating plants. the insulation policy must be specified, giving in input to the program the housing stock and the fraction of dwellings to be insulated as a function of time. the different insulation measures are evaluated both separately and in a combined way. the evaluations are performed both from financial and energy analysis point of view, determining the internal rates of return of the investments, financial and energy pay‐back times under static and dynamic conditions.The space heat savings evaluated in the first part of the program allow one to calculate, in the second part, additional savings due to the reduction of the investments required for the heating plants. It is also possible to assess the variation with time of the heating plant mix, taking into account of improved efficiencies and different energy sources.A test case for the North of Italy is described. It shows that a very simple insulation of both existing and new houses limits the growth of energy demand to only 18 per cent above the 1977 consumption levels, although the combined effects of new constructions and of an extensive upgrading of heating systems would require a 75 per cent energy demand increas

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040307

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents some results of a model developed by the Energy Systems Research Group under the auspices of the Swedish Energy Research and Development Board and the National Swedish Industrial Board for the allocation of energy resources during a temporary shortfall. the model is basically an input‐output model of the conventional sort with special treatment of energy inputs. Different objective functions can be used, but the results here assume maximization of private consumption with given restrictions on other demand components and on the composition of private consumption. First a reference case intended to be a representative situation for the latter part of the seventies was developed to be used as a basis for comparisons. Following that a ‘worst case’, in which no adaptation responses were allowed for, was run. Then several cases in which only one adaptation mechanism was introduced were computed. These mechanisms included conservation, allowing reduction of other demand components such as exports, allowing limited changes in the composition of consumer demand or in other types of demand, and allowing inventories of finished and semi‐finished goods to be drawn upon. Finally, several runs were made in which several of these mechanisms for adaptation were permitted to operate simulta

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040308

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe competition between conservation and substitution for scarce resources like skilled manpower and capital is an important policy issue augmented by the fact that the bulk of the investments for the two oil reducing options will occur at different points in time. Using a simple additive approximation to describe the available conservation options in old buildings in Sweden (retrofitting), the optimum mix of conservation and substitution for satisfying the useful energy demand in those buildings has been investigated with a multiperiod LP‐model (MARKAL). the optimization is made over 1980‐2020 in nine five‐year periods considering substitution technologies in the whole energy system. Different objective functions have been used. an analysis of the results shows clear differences in the implementation of identical conservation measures in single and multifamily houses. This is due to the fact that oil is substituted by different technologies in the two se

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040309

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe use of wind energy by means of its conversion to electricity involves a number of constrains such as economic, environmental, technical, legal, social and institutional requirements. Planning for wind energy should solve these issues in the planning process by encouraging opportunities and discouraging constraints associated with the use of wind energy.The opportunities and constraints significant at the regional level (i.e. approximately 10,000 km2) were identified, and a systematic method was developed to select sites for large WECS by incorporating the identified factors. These factors include: wind resource, proximity to load centres, proximity to tie‐in points, and exclusive land‐use areas.The developed method was applied to the western Massachusetts region, and the first results of the study have been acqui

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040310

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0363-907X    

DOI:10.1002/er.4440040301

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY