摘要:

AbstractBinary coherent system theory has played an important part in reliability. Its extension to (‘degradable’ or ‘multistate’ or) multinary systems has recently been considered in various papers, through various definitions. This paper lays the foundations of a unified theory for coherent systems by first giving unified arguments to apply and to investigate further binary and multinary systems. Monotone binary systems are introduced and examined by generalizing classic deterministic and probabilistic results. Applications of monotone coherence to the multinary case are proposed in a companion paper with a unified viewpoint on multinary coherent systems. As an indication, monotone constraints are defined with a partition of the component set and some total orderings imposed on the elements of the concerned partition. The discrete partition retrieves the classic theory of (free) binary coherent systems; some constraints defined from component levels lead to multinary coherent systems; some other constraints apply to systems submitted to some ‘common stresses’, e.g. the organizing system of a monotone coherent de

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractBinary coherent system theory has played an important part in reliability. Its extension to (‘degradable’ or ‘multistate’ or) multinary systems has recently been considered in various papers, through various definitions. This paper studies the most general model for multinary systems, proposes a unified viewpoint on multinary coherent systems and gives unified arguments to apply and to investigate further the binary and multinary cases.In a more detailed way, the ‘helpful bridge’ lately proposed by Block and Savits1between the binary and multinary cases is completed and multinary systems then can be studied in terms of monotone binary coherent systems, introduced in a companion paper.2Through various results, multinary systems are examined in terms of structure functions and of life functions; fundamental relations for their analysis are obtained with their set characterizations; the main axis that can be retained among the numerous types of coherence is emphasized, in a unified way, through relevance; reliability models are examined through performance processes, life lengths and performance functions; and Birnbaum's factors of importance are thoroughly extended to the multinary case. Fundamental results proposed in previous studies are thus completed with a shorter unifi

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTo evaluate the performance of a scheme for monitoring forecasts that are generated by exponential smoothing, forecasters have traditionally used a simulation‐based estimator of some characteristic of the associated run‐length distribution. The most frequently cited performance measures are the average run length and the probability that the run length does not exceed a user‐specified cut‐off point. However, there is disagreement about the definition of run length that is appropriate in the context of forecasting. In this paper we use fundamental results from renewal theory to establish the precise relationships between conflicting formulations both of the average run length and of the probability density function for the run length. More generally we derive the asymptotic mean and the asymptotic distribution function of the forward recurrence time for both ordinary and delayed renewal processes whose interoccurrence distributions are arithmetic with a given span. We discuss the practical significance of these results in the context of forecasting. Our findings bear directly on the way in which simulation experiments should be designed and executed to compare alternative forecast monitoring

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe problem originates from the necessity to predict luminosities of large‐amplitude variable stars that are to be observed by the astronomical satellite HIPPARCOS. The data have a specific character: they are unequally time‐spaced and can be missing during a long time in comparison to the pseudo‐period. So the classical method of time‐series analysis must be adapted and new methods are to be searched.In the following papers we present two solutions: a numerical one derived from a Fourier analysis and a symbo

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe problem originates from the necessity to predict luminosities of large‐amplitude variable stars that are to be observed by the astronomical satellite HIPPARCOS. The data have a specific character: they are unequally time‐spaced and can be missing during a long time in comparison to the pseudo‐period. So the classical method of time‐series analysis must be adapted and new methods are to be searched.In this paper we present a numerical solution derived from a Fourier a

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe problem originates from the necessity to predict luminosities of large‐amplitude variable stars that are to be observed by the astronomical satellite HIPPARCOS. The data have a specific character: they are unequally time‐spaced and can be missing during a long time in comparison to the pseudo‐period. So the classical method of time‐series analysis must be adapted and new methods are to be searched.In this paper we present a symbolic s

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractWe first present briefly the CALM learning method, based upon the idea ofbelief.Then we state the multi‐agents scheme in which such a method can be used to predict numerical values. The basic idea is to simulate the expert's reasoning in front of a graphical display of the numerical values representing the phenomenon he wants to study:(a)First, looking at local shapes in the curve(b)Secondly, using maxima, minima and/or zero‐crossings to prevent long range errors in the prediction.We present some results on the astronomy problem presented by M. O. Menessier about the prediction of brightness variation of Mira st

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050308

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe task of assessing the similarity of pattern between the entries of two square matrices has been discussed extensively over the last decade, as a unifying strategy for approaching a variety of seemingly disparate statistical problems. As typically defined, the comparison depends on a measure of matrix correspondence, usually a normalized cross‐product measure of some form, that is evaluated for relative size by the use of a reference distribution constructed through an equally likely permutation hypothesis defined at the level of the objects corresponding to the rows and columns of the two matrices. The extreme generality provided by this very simple framework subsumes a variety of different statistical problems, ranging from the study of spatial autocorrelation for variables observed over a set of geographic locations, to the topics of analysis of variance, the measurement of rank correlation, and confirmation techniques concerned with various conjectures of combinatorial structure that might be posited for an empirically determined measure of relationship between pairs of a given set of objects. The comparison strategies extant always assume that both matrices are fixed, and in those cases where one of the matrices codifies a given theoretical structure to be evaluated according to a second, this assumption can lead to substantial arbitrariness in how matrix similarity might be indexed, and thus, in how the comparison is implemented. As developed in this paper, exactly the same principles appropriate for use in the fixed comparison context can be extended to include matrices constructed through optimally weighted linear combinations of other sets of matrices. This generalization provides one mechanism for developing comparison strategies that allow assessment against very broad classes of matrices, which in turn serve to represent very general conjectures of possible combinatorial structure. This paper reviews some of these extensions in detail, with a particular emphasis on categorical and ordered categorical variables and whether they may reflect an empirically generated measure of object relationshi

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050309

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050310

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:8755-0024    

DOI:10.1002/asm.3150050301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY