摘要:

The impact of alternative river basin development strategies is examined from a multicriterion viewpoint using the ELECTRE I and II techniques. The main stem of the Santa Cruz River in the vicinity of Tucson, Arizona is taken as a case study. A systematic formulation of the problem is provided leading to an array of 25 alternative systems versus 13 criteria, only 5 of which are quantified. A procedure for ranking these alternatives is presented which uses ELECTRE I to obtain preference graphs as input into ELECTRE II, which is then used to obtain the ordering. Sensitivity analysis shows that changing the weights assigned to each criterion has a greater effect on the results than does changing the scales. However, neither effect is very significant. It is recommended that ELECTRE I be used for screening purposes to narrow the set of alternatives under consideration. ELECTRE II can then be applied to this reduced set to obtain a complete ordering. For the case study the preferred systems include reservoirs and channelization and the least preferred systems include new groundwater development.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00193

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Over the past 40 years, many attempts have been made to develop improved evaluation criteria for Federal water resources development projects. The scope of evaluation expanded markedly with the introduction of multiobjective planning embodied in the 1973 principles and standards adopted by the U.S. Water Resources Council. Recent improvement efforts by the Council included revisions to the principles and standards and the development of an accompanying manual of evaluation procedures for use in determining the overall attractiveness of alternative plans for water resources development. Analysis of these improvements indicates that the revised procedures for evaluating beneficial and adverse economic effects of water resources development are more consistent with theoretical principles, although in some cases the new procedures include compromises necessitated by limited data, computation complexity, and political and legal contraints. Furthermore, these revisions to the principles and standards stress nonstructural measures and water conservation, which should make these planning guidelines more responsive to the increasing need for cost efficient as well as environmentally sound water resources development.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00203

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The recent literature in water resource planning suggests several techniques for resolution of conflict and uncertainty in the planning process. Multiobjective planning is a societal reality which must be handled if rational plans are to be developed and assessed in an unambiguous fashion. This paper considers the application of an insurance or sinking fund to cases with stochastic system response and in particular deals with the theory of decision‐making for projects in which the uncertainties in benefit to the competing parties or interest groups are not independent. In effect, the paper develops a rule for incentive or side payments which accommodate the extent to which benefits to the parties cannot be decouple

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00211

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A theoretical model and empirical application are presented which account for the individual's decision concerning whether or not to recreate as well as the amount of participation once the decision is made. Results for warmwater fishing demand data yielded least squares parameter estimates fairly similar to those provided by an estimator which corrects for sample selection bias. Further research appears warranted regarding the general degree of potential selection bias inherent in outdoor recreation demand data.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00215

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

An operational net shortwave radiation model, which may be used to map radiation distributions under clear and cloudy skies, is described. Construction is achieved by modifying existing total spectrum approaches to allow a minimum of observational data to be used in its operation. Application to the Peyto Glacier Basin, Alberta, shows that realistic and diagnostically useful results can be produced from information contained in a topographic map, monitoring of the snowline, and routine weather observations. Net shortwave radiation estimates from the model are found to be a fair approximation of energy equivalents of ablation derived from stake measurements. It is concluded that net shortwave radiation should be a principal component of any realistic meltwater discharge model.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00220

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The purpose of this paper is to develop and solve a stochastic transport equation which is based directly on a stochastic representation of the velocity field. This equation, which describes the spatial and temporal variation in ensemble mean concentration, is similar in form to the advection‐dispersion equation. Of particular note are the coefficients of the second‐order terms, which are termed ensemble dispersion coefficients. For a simple system where neighboring velocities are uncorrelated, these coefficients vary as a function of the mean velocity, the variance in velocity, and travel distance of the tracer. For cases where the spatial correlation in velocity can be approximated by an exponentially decaying function, ensemble dispersion coefficients ultimately reach a constant value. If ensemble averages and spatial averages for a realization are equivalent, the ensemble dispersion coefficients can be related to the process of dispersion in a single realization. A hybrid deterministic‐probabilistic technique used to solve the stochastic equation has been verified with a one‐dimensional analytic solution. The results of trials with the numerical model show how variability in ensemble mean concentration is controlled by the coefficients in the stochastic transport equation for two different types of loading functions. The generality of the model makes it suitable for application to media with very different spatial st

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00231

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper presents the results of a theoretical study on the thermal behavior of a hot water storage system in an aquifer using a single well. It is shown that the storage efficiency and temperature are controlled by a limited number of dimensionless groups that depend on the aquifer's physical characteristics and the storage operating parameters. A numerical model is checked against analytical solutions and is then used to evaluate the variation with time of the well temperature during production periods for symmetrical cycles (production volume and flowrate equal to injection volume and flowrate). From these results, type curves are plotted for several sets of dimensionless parameters, covering the range of practical applications. Effects of unequal injection and production periods, standby periods, and other operating conditions are also investigated. Practical recommendations are made for efficient storage projects.

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00245

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Ten successive in situ experimental investigations of hot water storage by a single well and a pair of wells (doublet) were conducted in 1976–1977 at Bonnaud, Jura, in a confined aquifer 2.5 m thick. The injected volumes ranged from 500–1700 m3. Temperature profiles were measured daily in 12 boreholes distributed along two perpendicular axes within 13 m of the injection well. Individual temperatures were measured by ten thermistors placed in the caprock. The results are discussed and used to calibrate two mathematical models. An axisymmetric model allows the calibration of average values of the parameters, while a three‐dimensional model is used to determine their spatial variation in the horizontal plane. The latter model leads to the identification of a nonhomogeneous transmissibility field which fully accounts for both hydraulic and thermal contour curves. The models, which were matched against particular experiments, proved accurate when simulating other periods. Evidence is given of the importance to the recovery ratio of thermal dispersion in the aquifer and of the water content of the caprock. In a final section, experimental results of single well storage at Bonnaud, Campuget, and Auburn are compared with general type curves derived in the companion paper. They prove to yield adequate predictions of water temperature during the production p

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00253

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Equations are derived for equivalent Darcy permeability of a fracture system that consists of nonextensive fractures having arbitrary orientations with respect to the rock block considered. It is shown that in the case of nonextensive fractures, one cannot proceed to the limiting process where the volume of the bounding rock block can be reduced to an arbitrarily small value. Therefore, the dimensions of the block along with the dimensions of the fractures appear in the equations for the nine components of permeability. This leads to a situation where the equivalent permeability matrix is not only nonsymmetric, but also it does not follow the tensorial rules of axis rotation. This leads to the conclusion that, in the case of nonextensive fractures, the equivalent permeability cannot be defined as a characteristic intrinsic property of the medium as is possible in the case of porous medium or in a fractured medium that has extensive fractures. To analyze the effect of uncertainties in the field data on the estimation of equivalent permeability, a ‘second‐order’ statistical analysis is proposed. The method is quite general and can be used to analyze the propagation of parameter uncertainties in models. A numerical example using preliminary fracture data from the Columbia River basalt in Washington State is presented. The mean and standard deviation of the equivalent permeability of a 5×5 m block is estimated. Assuming that each component of the equivalent permeability has log normal distribution, the probability of their assuming values different from the mean is found to be significant. This points out the uncertainty that would be inherent in the flow simulation, if the mean value of permeability i

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00266

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Shreve's probabilistic‐topologic model for drainage network topology is herein extended and generalized to allow for the presence of lakes. Drainage network topology is represented by an integer string directly analogous to the binary strings used for channel networks without lakes. Validity constraints on integer strings are presented, along with combinatorial results and methods for generating ‘topologically random’ networks. The hypothesis that network element degree and type is independent of position within the integer string leads to good predictions of the relative frequencies of various classes of small subnetworks within a 596‐link network in northern Ontario. For the special case of networks without lakes the model is equivalent to S

ISSN:0043-1397    

DOI:10.1029/WR018i002p00275

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY