摘要:

ABSTRACT:A method for selecting a most appropriate multicritenon decision making (MCDM) technique for watershed resources management is modeled as a multicriterion problem. The procedure consists of identifying a set of feasible MCDM techniques, and evaluating them with respect to four sets of choice criteria, namely (1) problem related, (2) decision‐maker (DM)/analyst related, (3) technique‐related, and (4) solution‐related criteria. Altogether 15 techniques are evaluated in terms of 24 criteria, forming an evaluation matrix of criteria versus alternative MCDM techniques. The evaluation matrix is then analyzed by means by a composite programming algorithm resulting in a preference ranking of the alternatives. Application of the techniques to a watershed resources management problem illustrates the method throughout the paper. (KEY TERMS: alternative selection; watershed resources management; multicriterion decision making; composite program

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03159.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:Game‐theoretic models are developed for describing and analyzing the inspection and enforcement process, especially as it relates to environmental laws and regulations in North America. Based on these models, systems using irrevocable control orders can be compared to those relying on court determination of guilt and punishment. The cost‐effectiveness of environmental enforcement can be systematically assessed in terms of factors such as the private gains for violators, the costs of inspection, penalties, and the social value of deterring violations. The policy implications of the analysis, especially with reference to environmental protection, are emphasi

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03160.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:The detrimental impacts of acid rain have become widely publicized, but effective and equitable methods to mitigate the acid rain problem remain to be found. This paper focuses on conflicts involved in allocation of the total emission loads to be reduced to respective pollution sources of acid rain, and proposes a game‐theory approach to the resolution of the conflict. With an example abstracted from a hypothetical case study in the United States of America and Canada, a systematic analysis is performed and policy implications of the results examined to assess the applicability of the proposed mode

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03161.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:Since the early 1970s, a large volume of literature has accumulated related to multiobjective water resources management problems. A relatively small portion of this specifically addresses the negotiation process required when there are multiple decision makers with conflicting objectives. This paper focuses on that process and describes a computer program designed to assist such negotiation processes. This interactive computer assisted negotiation support system is called ICANS.ICANS is designed for dynamic, multi‐issue, multi‐party negotiation problems. Based on information provided in confidence by each party via an interactive graphical interface, the program can help determine if there exist any possible alternatives that are equivalent or even preferred to each party's decision in the absence of a negotiated agreement. If such alternatives exist, through a series of iterations in which each party's input data, assumptions, and preferences may change, ICANS can assist the parties in their search for a mutually acceptable and preferred agreement.A simple example illustrates the data requirements and the use of ICANS in negotiation experime

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03162.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:Hydrologic data network design is a fairly complicated problem where questions as to the number of gages required, time frequencies to be selected, and benefits/costs of monitoring still remain unresolved. These issues are intensified in case of water quality variables as they are more error‐prone, costly, and time consuming to sample. The basic difficulty underlying the design and evaluation of monitoring systems is the lack of an objective criterion to assess: (a) the efficiency, and (b) cost‐effectiveness of a network. A statistical procedure based on the entropy principle of information theory is proposed to address the evaluation of both factors. Efficiency is measured quantitatively in terms of the information produced by a network. Similarly, benefits of monitoring are described by informative measures for an objective evaluation of cost‐effectiveness. The study presented demonstrates the applicability of the entropy method in assessing the efficiency and the benefits of an existing water quality monitoring network. The method is applied for temporal and spatial features of monitoring, handled as both separate and combined problems. The results are shown in the case of the highly polluted Porsuk River in Turkey. The strengths and shortcomings of the proposed methodology are discussed, with recommendations for future research on the application of the entropy principle in network d

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03163.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:The performance of a flood warning system can be characterized statistically by three variables: the expected number of detections per year, ND; the expected number of false warnings per year, NP; and the expected lead time of a warning, LT. The Performance Tradeoff Characteristic (PTC) of a warning system is a set of all combinations (ND, NP, and LT) that are feasible to attain in a given system. The concept of PTC is an evolution of the concept of ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) widely used in detection theory. Each characteristic, ROC and PTC, can be displayed graphically in the form of a family of curves. The displays offer an aid to engineering planning and design of flood warning systems. (KEY TERMS: flood forecasts; flood warnings; reliability; detection; Relative Operating Characteristic; Performance Tradeoff Characteristic.)

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03164.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:This paper summarizes advances made in risk‐based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). (Riskis a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme‐event risk function f4(*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f4(*); the sensitivity of f4(*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme‐event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f4(*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f4(*), distribution‐free estimates of f4(*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research dir

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03165.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:The determination of optimum reservoir operating rules for reservoirs with multiple conflicting objectives is still a difficult task ‐ despite many publications in this field. In this paper a three‐step Multi Objective Decision Making (MODM) method is presented, the emphasis of which is placed on the necessity to make the work easy for the decision maker, which many MODM techniques fail to achieve. The method is applied to the development of a compromise optimum operating rule for a multi‐purpose reservoir. In the first step of the method stochastic DP is chosen which is combined with the “weighting method” allowing combination of various objectives into one objective function. By systematically varying the weights for the objectives a large number of pareto optimum reservoir operating rules is generated. In the second step of the method the performance of all these operating rules is tested with the aid of a model simulating reservoir operation. The results are statistically analyzed and the reliabilities for attaining the various objectives are computed. The third step of the model applies another MODM technique which allows the decision maker ‐ in a computer dialog ‐ to select his optimum reservoir operating rule from the large number of pareto optimum solutions generated in step 1. Here he can specify his preferences for the various objectives. For this purpose two alternative MODM techniques are offered: Compromise Programming and the SEMOPS method. Their performance is shown along with the generation and selection of operating rules for the multi‐objective Wupper reservoir sy

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03166.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACT:The operational problems of a reservoir are expressed by three coordinates: space, time stage, and objective. The operational procedure is formulated using dynamic programming as a multi‐objective problem. After comparing the scalar and the vector optimization, the scalar optimization technique is applied to turbidity analysis in a reservoi

ISSN:1093-474X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03167.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY