摘要:

Abstract.Throughout the history of social science, cyclical theories have had an intrinsic fascination for the explanation of social change. Confronted with the manyfold deviations and fluctuations of social development which could not be explained by linear‐evolutionary, let alone equilibrium theory, cyclical concepts claim to improve theory building. These concepts are based on the assumption that empirical deviations from a trend should not be handled as random error but can be interpreted substantially. Correspondingly the change from equilibrium to cyclical theory demarcates the changed perception of social systems from static to dynamic stability. Therefore the newer concepts, however, no longer thematize holistic changes of a social system but componential changes within a system. This article discusses the problems arising from this changed perspective, in terms of definition and statistical assessment of cycles. Further, three groups of micro‐level explanations causing cyclical development are discussed: predator‐prey and saturation concepts and theories of institutional in

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00868.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.This paper delineates three kinds or senses of the cycle concept as used in social science theory and research. Cycles of the weak or first kind merely refer to fluctuations or state changes. Cycles of the moderate or second kind refer to fluctuations with some constant periodicity in fact or in principle. Cycles of the strong or third kind have several analytical properties that require explanation. I argue that the termcycleshould be reserved for cycles of the second or third kinds and that the termsfluctuationoralternationshould be used for cycles of the first kind. The paper concludes with some comments on sources of resistance to the cycle concept.

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00869.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.The main focus of this paper is a comparison of results from studies on cycles in value change of the British and West German political systems. While the British data span more than two hundred years and the German data not more than 35 to 65 years, the British data are taken as a reference or constant. The comparison results in the observation that there is no indication of a general cyclical process of value change. This result contrasts with former results of British and American studies, which indicated a common cyclical process for these two nations.

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00870.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.On the basis of data from the Canton of Zurich for the period from 1880 to 1983 this paper tests three models of political control: the ‘crime control’, ‘conflict’, and ‘economic crises’ models. It is suggested that each of the models might be valid for a particular sub‐period. The identification of sub‐periods is based on the idea of Kondratiev cycles. For each sub‐period the effects of crime rates, the frequency of strikes and of bankruptcies on the number of police personnel and the severity of convictions are estimated by means of ARIMA modeling. The results show different patterns for each sub‐period. For the period from 1880 to 1933 growth rates of the indicators of political control are best explained by the frequency of strikes. For the second period there is a strong direct effect of economic crises on the extent o

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00871.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.In this article simulation results are used to analyze the capacity of a general politico‐economic model, developed by one of the authors, to generate cycles of various lengths. The model describes behaviour of individuals and organizations in the economic as well as the political sphere. The interaction between both spheres gives rise to short term (business) cycles as well as long term (Kondratieff) cycles. The analyses concentrate on the effect variations in the political sector (regarding, e.g., party identification on non‐economic grounds, the sensitivity of voters, and the discount parameter for past economic results) have on the cycles fo

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00872.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.This article claims that a predator‐prey model of cyclical growth is a useful concept for studying the dynamic relationship between wage and salary shares of GDP and employment. The rate of growth of employment is considered as an indicator of union bargaining strength; the change of the wage share is treated as a reflection of an ongoing distributional conflict between profits and wages. The paper discusses some of the analytic properties of the formal model. It continues with an attempt to fit the model to West German data for the period from 1960 to 1985. Given the formal rigidity of the model, this strategy is only partially successful. As a consequence, a more complex model is introduced which also relies heavily on the idea of a predator‐prey cycle. As a fully‐fledged political‐economic model of the OECD type of systems, it allows us to study, among other issues, the implications of different union policies under the constraint of a serious unemployment

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00873.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.The paper gives a brief overview of long wave analyses by embedding them into a general growth model of the Schumpeterian kind. A theory is presented which rests on price distortions in product and factor markets, and on the observation that institutional sluggishness prevents a society from reacting quickly to such distortions. This, it is argued, breeds cycles of the Kondratieff type. Empirical evidence to support this theory is presented for Germany and for Argentina.

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00874.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.The ‘cyclical’ effect covered in this paper deals with the development of public expenditure in West Germany in combination with the timing of elections. The underlying hypotheses on the cyclical development of certain expenditures are based on the ‘New Political Economy’ literature. This approach is then contrasted with the theory of budgetary incrementalism, an alternative mode of explanation of public sector growth. The data are tested to see whether a cyclical or linear model is more appropriate for describing public expenditure devel

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00875.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.A common form of electoral cycle theory asserts that support for government parties is dependent on the proportion of an inter‐election interval which has passed since the last national election. Weekly opinion poll data for the Netherlands are used to test whether or not such ‘cyclical’ patterns of change can be detected in the inter‐election periods of 1977–1981 and 1982–1986. The relative merits of two methods of analysis, polynomial regression and ARIMA, are discussed and demonstrated. The latter is shown to be the more suitable of the two; the former may yield misleading outcomes. The analyses reported do not display even a glimpse of empirical support for the alleged cyclical phenomenon. The ARIMA analyses can be used, however, to describe how processes and events in a society impinge on (noncyclical) developments in the electoral support for politi

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00876.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract.This short note discusses a few general data‐related problems which occur in analyses of cyclical processes, and offers a brief overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches and techniques that can be employed. The conclusion is that one should be flexible in approach; it is always possible to model data in more than one way. A prudent strategy will always include the specification and testing of various model

ISSN:0304-4130    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-6765.1987.tb00877.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY