摘要:

Short‐term economic prospects for the UK will depend critically on what happens to oil prices and on the government's response to any changes. Our central case assumes that North Sea oil averages £20 a barrel for the remainder of the year and that the government holds the sterling index at about 74. In the Focus we also examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in oil prices. The willingness of the government to let the exchange rate fall in response to the fall in oil prices means that we still expect GDP to grow by about 21/2. per cent in 1986 and we expect inflation to fall below 4 per cent by the middle of the year. Lower oil prices generate a faster growth of world output; the UK benefits from this and we are forecasting growth of nearly 3 per cent in 1987 with inflation falling furth

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00118.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00119.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00120.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00121.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this section we describe our medium‐term forecast based on the assumptions set out in section 2. AS usual we compare the inclusive, for the next four years, 1986‐9 with the Outturn Over the last four years, 1982‐5 inclusive. It should be borne in mind that the benchmark period 1981‐5 represents an upswing from the lowest point of the 1980‐1

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00122.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Focus: The Effects on the Forecast of Oil Prices and Economic PolicyThe central forecast depends on the underlying assumptions which, because of developments in the oil market, are particularly uncertain. In order to show how the forecast might change if our assumptions on oil prices and monetary and fiscal policy were to prove incorrect, we have analysed the effect on our October 1985 forecast of changes to the key assumptions. In addition to the effects of these changes, the simulations show that our forecast for GDP has been revised up.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00123.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00124.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Between the end of 1979 and the end of 1981 unemployment rose by 1.4 million. After that exceptional period unemployment continued to rise rather less rapidly to its current level of 3.2 million, Of this 3.2 million, about 1.3 million have been unemployed for more than a year. In this Briefing Paper we describe and attempt to explain the processes by which long‐term unemployment rose to its current level.We also discuss two related questions; the first concerns the relationship between unemployment and vacancies and the second concerns the relationship between long‐term unemployment and inflation. The final sections consider the policy implications of these findi

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00125.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00126.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00127.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY