摘要:

The economy has remained in recession this year and we now expect growth of under 1/2 per cent. However as the recent signs of an easierpolicy stance, both in the UK and worldwide, are confirmed, we expect a recovery next year, with output growing by 2 per cent against a background of world expansion.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00721.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00722.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming ‘unchanged’ policies. In particular we assume that the Budget in the spring of 1983 will give greater weight to the political objective of cutting income tax than to maintaining the fiscal and monetary limits set by the Medium‐Term Financial Strategy (MTFS). We therefore expect the PSBR, after falling below the planned level in the current financial year, to rise above the target jigure in the 1983‐4 and 1984‐5 financial years. We expect sterling M3 growth to mirror this and to be siightly below the upper end of its target range for the current financial year, slightly above in the following two financial years. The MTFS does not cover the period beyond 1984‐5. We assume that the broad objective of reducing the PSBR is continued in 1985‐6 and 1986‐7. despite the expected overshooting of targets i

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00723.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00724.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In June 1981 we forecast that output would grow in 1982 by 2.8 per cent. Our current forecast suggests that growth this year will be 0.3 per cent. On the face of it that is a very large error and in this Focus we examine what has gone wrong. Economists (and especially forecasters) are experts at explaining away their past mistakes. In this case a fair analysis does suggest that we were closer to the mark than a crude comparison between our earlier fore‐ cast and the (estimated) outcome suggests. Our mistakes (which we admit) also provide some interesting comments on the recent performance of the econom

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00725.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In recent speeches Treasury Ministers have coined a new slogan. They argue that inflation is not an alternative to high unemployment but a fundamental cause of it. They use this slogan to attack those who suggest that thefight against inflation should be slackened ‐ at least briefly ‐ in order to reduce unemployment. In this Economic e iewpoint we examine the arguments about the relation between inflation and unemployment. We suggest that although inflation may be a cause of unemployment in the long term there is an inescapable short‐term choice to be made between reducing unemployment and reducing inflation. We explain why this choice arises and also discuss the longer‐term effects of counter‐inflationary policies. Finally we examine the record of this Government's polici

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00726.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This Briefing Paper is thejirst ofa series of three designeddiscussed is the process of making ‘constant adjustments’ in forecasts. This process involves modifying the results generated by the econometric model. For the first time we are publishing tables of the constant adjustments used in the current forecast. We explain in general why such adjustments are made and also explain the actual adjustments we have made for this forecast.The second article of the series, to be published in our February 1983 edition, will describe the potential sources of error in forecasts. In particular it will describe the inevitable stochastic or random element involved in e tatistical attempts to quantify economic behaviour. As a completely new departure the article will report estimates of future errors based on stochastic simulations of the LBS. model and will provide statistical error bad for the main elements of the forecast.The final article, to be published in our June 1983 edition, will contrast the measures of forecast error that e e obtain from the estimation process and our stochastic e imulationsp with the errors that we have actually made, as revealed by an examination of our forecasting ‘track record’. It is hoped to draw, from this comparison, some e eneral conclusions about the scope and limits of econometric forecasting pr

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00727.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00728.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00729.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00730.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY