摘要:
Immediately after the year‐long coal strike the prospects for the industry appeared remarkably bright. Normal production was resumed more quickly than expected. The fall in the exchange rate, especially against the dollar, had greatly lessened the threat from cheap imported coal. The number of miners employed in deep mines was quickly reduced from 180,000 to 140,000, and the closure of uneconomic pits enabled production in the new super‐pits to be stepped up. The resulting sharp rise in productivity meant that the underlying position of the industry was close to break‐even, and at the coal prices prevailing last year could even have made a modest profit.The fall in the price of oil has plunged the industry into a new crisis. To preserve coal's market share, its price must follow oil prices downwards, which will drastically reduce the amount of coal that can be profitably produced in this country. with obvious implications for employment. In this Forecast Release we present some calculations (using the approach we adopted in earlier articles published in October and December 1984) which show the scale of the required reductions, and consider the policy implications. We conclude that there 13 no case for constraining coal prices to remain above true market‐clearing levels, since this amounts to a concealed tax on coal‐ (and hence electricity‐) users which would hamper the employment‐creating growth of manufacturing industry. There is however a strong case for allowing the coal industry to increase its borrowing to cover the deficits that result from keeping higher‐cost pits in production in order to reduce future dependence
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00133.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1986
数据来源: WILEY