摘要:

In comparison with our February forecast, we are more optimistic on the prospects for output and unemployment both this year and into the medium term. But in consequence we have raised our forecast for the current account deficit. GDP growth, nearly 5 per cent last year, falls back to 3½ per cent this year and 2½ per cent in 1989; from 1990 onwards output is expected to increase at its underlying trend of 3 per cent. Inflation is currently rising but, as output decelerates, it peaks at 5 per cent and drifts gradually lower over the medium term. The current account deficit is projected at £5bn both this year and next; helped by a steadily depreciating exchange rate, which boosts exports, the deficit narrows from 1990 onwar

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00401.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00402.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00403.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00404.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In the second issue ofEconomic Outlook(April 1977) we published an article entitled “Why the exchange rate must be set free”. In thisViewpointwe recall the arguments we presented then and consider their relevance to the present debate about exchange rate policy. We conclude that circumstances now are rather different from those in 1977 and that the choice between monetary targeting and exchange rate targeting is not as simple as it appeared then. Nevertheless we do believe that in the circumstances of recent month it was correct to let the exchange rate rise above its unofficial “ceiling” of DM3 rather than to pursue a specific exchange rate

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00405.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ThisBriefing Paperdescribes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply‐side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income‐expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are:‐ Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components.‐ Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports.‐ Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability).‐ In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance.‐ Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply.‐ In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through.‐ A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit.‐ In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00406.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00407.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00408.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00409.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1988.tb00410.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY