摘要:

Even if output recovers in the second quarter (as we expect), it looks as if there will be no increase in GDP this year in comparison with 1991. This reflects the weak start to the year, in which non‐oil output registered its seventh successive quarterly decline. Through the year (fourth quarter to fourth quarter), however, we expect GDP to rise 1.5 per cent, laying the basis for a stronger recovery in 1993. Even so, it is not until late next year that output returns to its previous peak Paradoxically, we have raised our forecast of domestic demand from February (on a milder stock rundown) but imports are taking a disproportionate amount of the extra demand, holding back domestic output and aggravating the current account deficit. From nearly £9bn this year, we see the deficit rising to over £14bn by the middle of the decade, equivalent to 13/4 per cent of GDP. While this is disappointing, it should be relatively easily financed even with lower interest rates providing the pound is held at its present DM 2.95 parity. we assume no ERM realignment which underpins a further drop in inflation to 4 per cent later this year and to 3‐3 1/2 per cent by the mid 1990s. The weakness of output means that unemployment continues to rise for another 12 months, peaking in the middle of 1993 at three million, and that public sector finances will move still further into deficit ‐ we project a PSBR this year of £30bn and a peak of £34bn in 1993‐4, equivalent to 5 1/4 per

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00274.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00275.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00276.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00277.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00278.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00279.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact have raised a host of new questions. Will there be a Peace Dividend: more security and more money to spend on other things, or a Peace Penalty: mass unemployment in the arms industry and financial difficulty for many leading high‐technology firms? Will there even be Peace at all or will there be instead a new ‘Second World War’ as the old Second World of the Centrally Planned Economies relapses into internecine nationalist conflict? Many of these questions are unanswerable, but this paper reviews what is known about the likely trend in military spending and its economic impact on Western Economies. It examines the strategic context which will determine the size of the reductions in military expenditure; the policy response which will determine how governments adjust their budgetary stance to reduced military outlays; and the macroeconomic and industrial impact of these ch

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00280.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00281.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00282.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00283.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY