摘要:
In the first two years of the Conservative government elected in May 1979 sterling rose 25 per cent on a trade weighted basis. It then fell back and is currently little changed from the level inherited by the Conservatives. In the first two years of the Reagan administration the dollar rose 30 per cent on the same basis. It too fell back thereafter, but only briefly ‐ throughout 1983 the rise of the dollar has been resumed and it now stands at its highest level for at least twenty years. In this Forecast Release we examine the similarities and differences between these two currencies. We argue that a crucial element explaining the performance of the currency has been the size and expected development of the public sector deficit and that prospects for the dollar depend crucially on this. A sharp fall in the dollar could occur in the next year or two if rapid growth of output begins to produce a signijcant reduction in federal borrowin
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00741.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1983
数据来源: WILEY