ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00771.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00772.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We have attempted in this forecast to make our best guesses about the likely development of policy over the coming years rather than to assume ‘unchanged policy’. We assume that, at least until 1984, the broad framework of policy will be that provided by the Mediwn‐Term Financial Strategy, which provides a target for the growth of the money supply (ł M3) and a path for the PSBR.The forecast suggests that one objective of the MTFS, which was to reduce the PSBR as a percentage of GDP at market prices, remains feasible. However, we do not now expect the 1983–4 PSBR guideline of 2 per cent to be achieved until 1984–5, and we expect the growth of sterling M3 to remain outside the target range right through the forecast period, even though real interest rates remai

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00773.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00774.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SummaryOver the past four years output has fallen slightly but consumption has continued to grow. The growth of living standards has been maintained by imports paid for out of North Sea oil revenues. Meanwhile investment has fallen and inflation has remained high. These gloomy statistics reflect the fact that the period 1977‐81 encompasses all the worst effects on the economy of the second oil price shock. We expect some improvement over the next four years. Output will start to grow again though only moderately. A higher proportion of the available resources are likely to be devoted to investment and building up rather than running down stocks. Because of this, the improvement in living standards is expected to be less rapid than over the past four years. The past four years, which cover the worst of the recession, were much better for consumers than producers. We expect the next four years ‐ essentially a period of recovery and reconstruction ‐ to be better for producers than consumers. Inflation will be contained but not

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00775.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Prospects for the economy in the coming years depend largely on whether the private sector will expand activity and increase its employment. The immediate concern is to reverse the falls of output and employment since 1979; the longer‐term concern is to generate sustained growth. In the short term. the recovery of output will depend signficantly on whether companies are prepared to rebuild stock levels. In the longer term, a sustained increase in output and employment will require an expansion of the capital stock. In each case what is needed is an increase in company expenditure. Recent experience suggests that such an increase will require a rise in the company sector's income. In thisEconomic Viewpointwe consider how an increase in the company sector's income and expenditure could be achieved and argue that a cut in the National Insurance Surcharge is a particularly efficient metho

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00776.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ThisBriefing Paperexamines the contribution that control theory can make to our understanding of macroeconomic policy. Control theory is an area of study, orginally developed in engineering, which has since been applied to a very wide range of problems not only in engineering but also in biology. ecology, physiology, space exploration and economics. The kinds of questions in economics which conrrol theory could help us to answer include: what objectives should the government be pursuing, infation or unemployment or both, and by what means? what instruments should be used and in what combinations? should the government adopt targets for the money supply or the exchange rate, or concentrate on unemployment and the balance of payments?

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00777.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00778.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00779.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00780.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY