摘要:
The world economy is now moving towards recession, led by the US. How bad will that recession be, and how long will it last? For the UK, with industrial output already flat, this will be an important determination of the short‐term outlook and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. This Release concentrates on the world framework, with the major forecast for the UK following in our November issue ‐ a timetable corresponding to this year's Budget in June. The next main UK forecast will however revert to its normal timing in February 1980.SummaryThe deterioration in the prospects for the industrial countries which we analysed m the June/July Economic Outlook has recently been echoed by a number of other forecasting bodies, such as the IMF and the OECD, both of whom are now forecasting a recession for 1980. The profile of our forecast is essentiany unchanged (Table l), although the magnitude of the recession has slightly deepened. With the resumption of growth in 1981 we are now assuming that the OPEC countries will once more be in a position to raise the real price of oil ‐ from the second quarter of 1981 we assume that the real price of oil wilt mcnase by 1 per cent per quarter, i.e. just over 4 per cent each year. (Tab
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1979.tb00559.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1979
数据来源: WILEY