摘要:

We expect the recent fall in the pound to halt the decline in manufacturing industry and help generate a modest upturn this year. Total output is expected e o be 1% per cent higher than in 1982 while consumer price inflation falls to under 6 per cent year on year.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00745.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00746.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming ‘unchanged’ policies. In the central forecast we assume that the broad thrust of policy is unchanged, i.e. we have made the technical assumption that the present government is returned in the next General Election. But, because an election must be held within the next 15 months, we also consider the medium‐term prospects under alternative economic policies. (For details see p. 19.) In the central forecast. e herefore. we assume that policy will continue to be guided‐though not completely determined‐by an extended Medium‐ Term Financial Strategy (MTFS). For 1983‐4 the MTFS requires the PSBR to be 23/4% per cent of GDP at market prices. Given official inflation and output forecasts, the Chancellor is therefore aiming for a 1983‐4 PSBR of £8bn (Autumn Statement, p. 13). In the central forecast. however, we have assumed that the Budget of 15 March will give greater weight to the political objectives of cutting income tax and maintaining the attack on inflation, even if this implies slippage from the MTFS targets. Specifcally we have assumed that the standard rate of income tax will be cut by lp. that personal tax allowances will be raised by 12 per cent and that indirect taxes will be raised by only half the amount required for full revalorisation. This amounts to a total tax giveaway (compared with unchangedpolicy) of £1 1/2 and results in a PSBR of just over £9bn. 3.1 per cent of G

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00747.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00748.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00749.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Prospects for the economy several years ahead are even more uncertain than projections of the near future. e overnment policy is currently particularly uncertain e iven that a general election is due to occur in the next 15 months. This article presents three ‘alternative scenarios’, one based on Conservative Party policies, the others on the spirit of Labour Party policies.The first case described is our central forecast. It is a continuation of current Conservative Party policies. The second and third cases are based on our interpretation of Labour Party policies. These policies are assumed to involve widespread use of government intervention, planning, wage and import controls. Monetary targets are relaxed or abandoned. We consider two possible out comes of such policies. Under one outcome the policies are relatively successjul in boosting output and employment without greatly raising inflation. Under the other out comes, output is lower than on current policies and inflationt much hig

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00750.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In October 1981 in “An Economy Out of Balance” we examined the state of the economy following the severe shocks of 1979 and 1980. We warned that adjustments in some markets, particularly for goods and labour, might be “painfully slow”, In this Viewpoint we bring that study up to date. We argue that the recent fall in the exchange rate has helped to correct some of those imbalances and that there should now be the basis for a recovery of output and a check to the rise in unemp

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00751.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00752.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00753.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00754.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY