摘要:

The recovery in demand, which began in the second half of 1982, produced output growth of about 23/4 per cent in 1983. We expect this growth rate to be maintained, if not bettered, in 1984. The long‐standing reduction in inflation has now come to an end but we do not expect prices to accelerate. Over the next four years a stable inflation rate of 5–6 per cent is forec

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00599.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00600.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments which at this time broadly corresponds to “unchanged policy”. Compared with our October projections we estimate that public expenditure is running at a higher level than previously expected and we assume that the higher level will be maintained in the future. As a result, there will be no space for tax reductions in the coming Budget and so we now assume that the National Insurance Surcharge is unchanged. All other tax rates also remain unaltered, except for the indexation of tax allowances and bands and revalorisation of indirect ta

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00601.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00602.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this section we compare our forecast for the economy for the period 1984‐7 with the outturn for 1980‐3. Although 1983 was a year of low inflation and recovery of output, the last four years, which constitute the basis for the comparison, include the rapid inflation of 1979‐80 and the very severe recession of 1980‐1. It is not therefore surprising that, in the assumed absence of shocks, we expect the economy to perform better on virtually all counts in the next four years than it did in the la

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00603.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this section we examine the current forecast together with its immediate predecessors to see how the forecast itself has changed over the last year. The conclusion is that we have become progressively more optimistic in the last 12 months about prospects for both output and inflation. The two are connected: the lower inflation outturn has contributed to higher consumers' expenditure and hence to output. On the PSBR and the current account of the balance of payments, given the large margins of error attached to these forecasts, we have not changed the main thrust of the forecast: in the next four years a declining PSBR and approximate current account balance remain the most likely outturn.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00604.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

There is no doubt that the most encouraging aspect of Britain's economic performance in recent years has been the fall in inflation from a peak of over 20 per cent in June 1980 to a current rate of about 5 per cent. The speed at which inflation fell has taken many forecasters (including ourselves) by surprise. In this Economic Viewpoint we ask why the inflation rate has fallen. If we can understand why it has happened we are better placed to answer questions about the future. In particular we can try to decide whether the success in reducing inflation will be maintained and whether further cuts in inflation will be consistent with a fall in unemployment.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00605.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this Briefing Paper we examine the underlying determinants of personal savings behaviour to substantiate our view that the recent fall in savings rates does not imply that it must in future bounce back to some more normal level. On the contrary there are good reasons for believing that savings are more likely to go on falling than to rise.We argue that consumer behaviour should be related explicitly to personal wealth as well as to disposable income. Personal wealth has risen substantially since 1982: the fall in inflation and long‐term interest rates has pushed up gilts' prices; the recovery of profits has sparked off a stock market boom; and the value of the housing stock, which is by far the most important asset held by the personal sector, has started to rise again in real terms. This rise in asset values means that, despite a rise in consumption financed by borrowing, the personal sector balance sheet still in a healthy state, particularly when account is taken of the personal savings now held indirectly via pension funds. These have risen rapidly recently, reducing the need for other long‐term savings.The rise in total wealth has increased savers' tolerance of a fall in net liquid assets (bank and building society deposits etc less borrowing). The willingness to hold a smaller (precautionary) stock of net liquid assets may also reflect a perceived reduction in risk. Financial markets have been much more stable over the period since 1975 than over the preceding eight years, and may now be signalling that the period of adjustment to the shocks and disturbances of the 1970s is drawing to an end. The fall in savings is a worldwide phenomenon. As in the UK it is linked to the fall in inflation and may also be connected with the recovery of the world's major stock mark

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00606.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00607.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1984.tb00608.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY