摘要:

Output fell in the first quarter of the year but we attribute the fall largely to the severe winter and expect the recovery of output, which began twelve months ago, to resume in the second quarter. We now expect output to grow by 1 per cent this year with more rapid growth in 1983 and beyond. We expect consumer price inflation to fall as low as 7 per cent during the next year and to rise thereafter, reaching double figures by the end of 1984.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00813.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00814.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00815.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The world economy has now suffered two major oil price shocks. Although the percentage increase in 1973‐74 (OPEC I) was much larger than in 1979‐80 (OPEC II). the potential effect on the level of world prices ‐ and hence on the real economy ‐ was about the same in each case. One lesson that was learned from OPEC I was that the impact of the oil price increase on individual economies depended on the policies followed by each country. For example, in the UK the inflation rate rose to 27 per cent in 1975 whereas in West Germany ‐ which was just as dependent on imported oil‐inflation rose to 7 per cent. In thisEconomic Viewpointwe consider the example of one country ‐ Japan ‐ which changed its policies between the two events. As a result it changed from being one of the least successful to being one of the most successful in coping with the oil

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00816.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In the last decade there has been a major new development in economics – the Rational Expectations Revolution. Its supporters claim that it has permanently altered our whole approach to economics, particularly in the areas of policy‐making and forecasting. Its critics argue that it is based on wholly unrealistic ideas about the possible sophistication of individuals in making economic decisions. ThisBriefing Paperoffers a preliminary assessment of the Rational Expectations Revolution and indicates areas in which current research is act

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00817.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00818.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00819.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1982.tb00820.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY