摘要:

Economic recovery is under way fuelled by a sustained rise in consumer spending. We expect. output to grow by 2% per cent this year, slightly faster in 1984. Although prices will rise more rapidly from now on than in recent months, the inflation rate is unlikely to rise signijkantly above 6 per cent over the next two years.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00731.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00732.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming ‘unchanged policies’. For the present financial year, 1983‐4, we have assumed that fiscal policy will be as set out in the Budget of 15 March and that, where monetary conditions permit, the authorities will continue to push for lower interest rates rather than see sterling appreciate.In future years we assume that policy will be guided‐though not completely determined ‐by the Medium‐Term Financial Strategy (extended in next year's Budget to 1986‐7). As in 1983‐4, on the basis of our projections of public expenditure and forecasts of output, this implies that there will be scope in future Budgets for further tax cuts. We have assumed that a prioriv for 1984‐5 will be the abolition of the national insurance surcharge and that progress will also be possible in this Parliament towards lowering the standard r

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00733.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00734.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Manufacturing industry has been the major casualty of the recession, recording a total fall in output of about 20 per cent. It is unusual for productivity to rise when output is falling, yet in the last two years output per person employed in manufacturing has risen by 15 per cent. As a result, and in spite of earnings growth of over 25 per cent between 1980 and 1982, the increase in unit labour costs was held to under 15 per cent in the same two‐year period. In this Focus we examine how and why these developments have taken place. Our general conclusion is that, with a recovery now under way, normal pro‐cyclical productivity gains are reinforcing the abnormal achievements of the last two years and that, in consequence, industrial costs and profits are improving shar

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00735.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00736.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This Briefing Paper is the last of a series of three about forecasting. In this one we examine our forecasting record; it complements the February paper in which we analysed the properties of our forecasting model in terms of the error bands attached to the central forecast.There are many ways of measuring forecasting errors, and in the first part of this Briefing Paper we describe briefing how we have tackled the problem. (A more detailed analysis can be found in the Appendix.) In Part II we report and comment upon the errors in our forecasts of annual growth rates and show how our forecasting performance has improved over the years. In Part III we focus on quarterly forecasts up to 8 quarters ahead, and compare our forecasting errors with measurement errors in the oficial statistics; with the estimation errors built into our forecast equations; and with the stochastic model errors we reported last February. A brief summary of the main conclusions is given below.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00737.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00738.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00739.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00740.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY