摘要:

Led by manufacturing industry, output has accelerated and GDP growth approaching 4 per cent is likely this year. But strains are emerging and we expect slower growth from now on. Over the medium term GDP is forecast to rise at a sustain‐ able 3 per cent rate, nearly 31/2 per cent for non‐oil output. This should enable the reduction in un‐ employment to continue, though at a slower pace than in the last year. Against a background of rising activity, we expect inflation to remain at its present underlying rate of about 4 per cent and the current account deficit to settle at about £2bn p.a. We show in the Focus how this forecast might change if the stock market fails to recover from its mid‐Octo

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00359.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00360.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00361.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00362.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00363.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

At their recent meeting in Washington the Group of Seven reafirmed their desire to hold exchange rates at about their current level. In this Viewpoint we consider the prospects for success. We conclude that although current rates are feasible in terms of competitiveness, the system will remain under strain as long as there are major inconsistencies between jiscal policy in the US and the rest of the world. The present conjuncture of interest rates and inflation points to a further dollar depreciation. It would be better, in our view, to enact this quickly and to attempt to stabilize exchange rates at sustainable levels: the policy of holding the dollar is misguided.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00364.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In the last year total output has risen 4 per cent and manufacturing is up 6 per cent. Unemployment has fallen by 400,000. The current account, which was in surplus in the first half of the year, has moved back into deficit. Does this mean that the economy is “over‐ heating”? In the context of our forecast we examine this issue; we consider how rapidly supply can increase and how fast demand is increasing. We conclude that the growth of output in the last year was initially driven by supply and that, more recently, domestic demand has been growing very rapidly. The emergence of a current account deficit is evidence of excess domestic demand but from now on we expect demand to grow less rapidly. With non‐oil supply expanding at a rate in excess of 3 per cent, we forecast steady output growth and little change in either inflation or the current account. In our judgement, the economy, though hot, is not over

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00365.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00366.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00367.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1987.tb00368.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY