|
1. |
Forecast Summary |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 2-3
Preview
|
PDF (221KB)
|
|
摘要:
In themselves the drop in interest rates and the fall in the exchange rate following the ERM débâcle of “Black Wednesday” will have an expansionary effect on demand in the UK economy. But because of the way in which the policy shift was handled, any positive impact is likely to be offset by lower business and consumer confidence with the result in our forecast that recession continues well into next year. It is another six months before output stops falling and a rise of as little as 0.9per cent is in prospect for 1993 as a whole. Such a weak recovery will, however, limit the inflationary impact of a lower pound and, helped by lower mortgage interest rates, retail price inflation is forecast to be almost unchanged over the next 12 months. In 1994 and beyond, the inflationary effects of devaluation are more evident and we assume that the Government will tighten its monetary stance, raising interest rates back above 10 per cent to stabilise the pound, possibly re‐entering the ERM at a new central parity of DM2.40. On this policy stance, output rises 3 per cent in 1994 but slows thereafter and the peak in inflation is held to 6 per cent late in 1994. The J‐curve effects of devaluation enlarge the current account deficit to f20bn next year‐ The weakness of output over the next 12 months is the main factor behind a rise in unemployment to 3.2 million and a steady increase in the PSBR, which reaches a high of f43bn in 1995‐6, equivalent to 6per cent o
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00285.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
2. |
The Forecast in detail |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 4-5
Preview
|
PDF (170KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00286.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
3. |
Assumptions |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 6-7
Preview
|
PDF (195KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00287.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
4. |
The Outllook |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 8-19
Preview
|
PDF (1118KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00288.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
5. |
Financial and Sector Analysis |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 20-29
Preview
|
PDF (811KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00289.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
6. |
Rule‐Based Discretion: a New Policy Framework |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 30-35
DAVID CURRIE,
GEOFEREY DICKS,
Preview
|
PDF (631KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00290.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
7. |
A Proposed Framework for Monetary Policy |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 36-41
ANTHONY GARRATT,
STEPHEN HALL,
Preview
|
PDF (536KB)
|
|
摘要:
Leave the ERM, cut interest rates and let the pound find its own level⃛ it's the cut and run option. The credibility of our anti‐inflationary strategy would be in tatters. And quite soon interest rates would have to go back up again ‐ Norman Lamont, in a speech to the European Policy Forum, July
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00291.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
8. |
Forecast Tables |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 42-66
Preview
|
PDF (1294KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00292.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
9. |
The Forecasting Record |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 67-67
Preview
|
PDF (43KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00293.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
10. |
Discussion Papers |
|
Economic Outlook,
Volume 17,
Issue 1,
1992,
Page 68-68
Preview
|
PDF (61KB)
|
|
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1992.tb00294.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1992
数据来源: WILEY
|
|