摘要:

Little has happened in the three months since our post‐election forecast to undermine the view that the economy has entered a period of sustainable recovery. We expect output to grow by 21/4 per cent (at 1975 prices ‐ faster on a 1980 price basis) this year and in the 2–21/2 per cent range in both 1984 and 1985. We expect inflation to rise from its recent low point as special factors unwind, but to settle at around 6 per cent in 1984 and

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00521.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00522.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming ‘ unchanged policies ’. This forecast differs from our July forecast in that we have not assumed any income tax cuts; nor have we assumed, as we did in July, that National Insurance contributions would be increased. We do, however, continue to assume the abolition of the national insurance surcharge in two equal stages during the 1984‐5 fiscal year, as well as the usual indexation of tax allowances and bands and revalorisation of indirect taxes. This change in assumptions about policy reflects our guess that the new Chancellor, Nigel Lawson, will attempt to hit his monetary targets by a combination of tighter fiscal policy and lower interest rates than we had previously assumed. In this forecast interest rates are on average about 2 points lower than in

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00523.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00524.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00525.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00526.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In March 1983 Mr Malcolm Fraser's Liberal Coalition was defeated in the Australian general election. He had held office for over 7years. His Government's record on economic management can be briefly summarised as follows. At the end of 1975 when the Liberal Coalition took office the inflation rate was 14 per cent and the rate of unemployment was 5.4 per cent; in March 1983 the inflation rate was 11.5 per cent and the rate of unemployment was 10.4 per cent. It is generally thought that Mr Fraser's policies were not unlike those of Mrs Thatcher. Since he had been operating them for over seven years it is reasonable to ask why the outcome appears to have been so disappointing. In this Briefing Paper we examine recent developments in the Australian economy and make some comparisons of policies and outcomes in Australia and Britain, particularly during the past four years, when there were conservative Governments in both countries.

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00527.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00528.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00529.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1983.tb00530.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY