摘要:

The recent weakness of the world economy does not undermine the relatively optimistic forecast for 1987 which we presented in May. At that time we suggested that activity would be sluggish for most of this year as a result of the impact effect of the OPEC III oil price collapse. But we also argued that by the end of the year there would be clear signs of a consumer‐led recovery as the personal sector adjusted to the real income gains and lower inflation benefits of the lower oil price and the reduction in nominal interest rates which followed. There is mounting evidence of rising consumer spending, particularly in Europe and it is something of a puzzle that output has not risen to meet this demand. The explanation is partly that producer confidence has lagged behind that of consumers, so that demand has been met from stock, and partly that spending has been supplied from countries outside the OECD, especially the NICs in the Far East. Nevertheless, we are convinced that our earlier view of OECD output prospects next year remains the most likely though, in recognition of the growing importance of non‐OECD competition, we have adjusted the output forecast down slightly. OECD GNP is expected to rise 2.6 per cent this year, with an acceleration to over 4 per cent in 1987 arid 1988. Moreover, we believe this can be achieved without a rebound in inflation, which is forecast to be stable at about its present level of 2 1/2 per c

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00110.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The Federal Reserve, having failed in its attempts to persuade either the Japanese or West German governments to adopt a more expansionary stance, has persisted in its policy of monetary relaxation as a means of boosting domestic: demand and, by way of a lower dollar, improving US competitiveness. In spite of a monetary overshoot, interest rates have been cut repeatedly this year and the current level of the discount rate is the lowest in nearly a decade. The tightening of fiscal policy, which Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker insisted was a pre‐requisite of monetary easing, remains elusive. As the “automaticity” element of Gramm‐Rudman has been declared unconstitutional, the onus for cutting the budget deficit is once more back on Congress. And while little progress is made on reducing domestic absorption, the trade and current account deficits continue to set new

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00111.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

As a consequence of his personal triumph in the July elections, Mr. Nakasone's term as Prime Minister has been extended beyond October when on existing rules he was due to step down. This suggests no immediate change in the economic policy of liberalising markets, control of public spending and fiscal restructuring rather than simple demand expansion. It also implies that, notwithstanding the vociferous opposition of export‐oriented industry, the case for a strong yen, as a means of re‐orienting demand towards domestic markets and curbing the trade surplus, is accepted by the government. Thus, despite continuing pressure from the US, Japan did not cut its discount rate over the summer. Nevertheless, with the economy flat and forecasts for 198617 being downgraded, a package of measures is scheduled for this aut

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00112.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The government's argument that domestic demand is buoyant and that output is rising at a 3 per cent rate was vindicated by figures, for the second quarter. After a weak first quarter (partly due to another severe winter), GNP bounced back strongly and the annual growth rate reached 3.3 per cent, higher than the government's target of 3 per cent for 1986. This rebound, together with above‐target monetary growth explains why the German authorities continue to resist pressure from the US to cut interest rates. Despite the rapid volume growth of imports as demand picks up, the fall in their DM price means that the trade surplus is continuing to grow. The current account surplus of DM40.5bn for the first seven months of the year is more than double that in the equivalent period last yea

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00113.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The government of Mr. Chirac, which was elected in March, is establishing a liberalising, market‐oriented stance on economic policy. Controls on prices and foreign exchange have been relaxed, credit controls are being dismantled and, in spite of opposition from President Mitterrand, a large‐scale privatisation programme is planned. The draft 1987 budget proposes to cut public expenditure in real terms for the first time in 28 years and to use the savings to reduce both taxes and the budget deficit. The projected tightening of the fiscal stance is not expected to hold back output which the government forecasts will rise 2 1/2 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 1987. Inflation is also forecast to improve steadily and the current account is moving into surplus. Unemployment, currently at a postwar peak of 10.7 per cent, is expected to fall towards the end of the y

ISSN:0140-489X    

DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1986.tb00114.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1986

数据来源: WILEY