摘要:
This forecast release examines the latest monthly indicators. In general there are few surprises although total output in the economy is showing signs of moving upwards more rapidly than we had expected, with the underlying trend in industrial production showing a 1½ percent increase over the last three months. Retail sales are currently running at over 3 per cent above the 1977 level. The underlying rate of retail price inflation is now under 8 per cent although the input price figures are showing some increase after the earlier falls. The balance of payments continues to be very erratic with monthly oscillations of up to £500m. The most recent figures showing a sharp fall in imports are consistent with the view we expressed last month that much of the rise in imports in the first quarter reflected stock‐ building of imported goods as companies took advantage of the strong pound. The money supply figures continue to be disturbing with recent growth over 12 months at 16 percent while the six‐monthly figure has been close to 20 per cent; compared to our major industrial competitors this puts us back towards the top of the league on monetary growth and in this light it is not surprising that the exchange rate has f
ISSN:0140-489X
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0319.1978.tb00507.x
出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd
年代:1978
数据来源: WILEY