摘要:

AbstractAn experiment is presented that explores the finding that a request to judge probabilities can bias subsequent decisions (Erevet al., 1993). Subjects chose among gambles whose outcomes were determined by the occurrence of events in a video game environment. The probabilities of the events could be assessed based on the visual display. In theno‐probabilitiescondition the subjects simply indicated their choices. In thesubjective‐probabilitycondition subjects first estimated probabilities and then made choices. In theobjective‐probabilitycondition, subjects saw the actual probabilities instead of the events when making their choices. The results suggest that the availability of explicit probabilities (both subjective and objectives) decreases the subjects sensitivity to the outcome dimension and, hence, increases the reflection effect; i.e. subjects in thesubjective‐andobjective‐probabilityconditions showed stronger risk aversion when the gambles involved possible profit and stronger risk seeking when the gambles involved possible losses than in theno‐probabilitiescondition. In addition, the subjective assessments impaired the quality of the decisions in term of the subjects expected profit. Theoretical and practical implications of the results ar

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecent studies by Kahnemanet al.(1986a, b) present consistent evidence that the economically rational decision of market exploitation is perceived as unfair by individuals. Further, these fairness judgments are influenced by the sign of the outcome—that is, an outcome coded as a gain is perceived as fairer than an objectively similar outcome coded as a loss, particularly when they occur for the benefit of the exploiter. As an extension of the Kahnemanet al.research, we examine the influence of both outcome sign and information about the procedures used to allocate the outcome on individual judgements of market exploitation. Replicating Kahnemanet al., we found that market exploitation is judged as unfair, and that such judgements are influences by the subjective coding (as gains or losses) of objectively similar outcomes. In addition, we found that procedural information also influences judgements of market exploitation. The implications of these results are discusse

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief‐adjustment model. The results, based on both between‐subjects and within‐subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within‐subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSeveral choice situations are constructed to explore whether the violation of expected utility theory in an Allais paradox choice situation can be attributed to what Tversky and Kahneman (1986) describe as the Allais certainty effect. Problems are developed where the Allais certainty effect would be expected to occur but results show it does not. Other problems demonstrate that the Allais ‘paradox’ is observed in the absence of the Allais certainty effect. The study concludes that, although expected utility theory is known to be wrong through the Allais paradox, the Allais certainty effect does not appear to be able to rescue

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractDespite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060401

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY