摘要:

AbstractAlthough the controversy over the correct solution to the St. Petersburg paradox continues in the decision making literature, few of the solutions have been empirically evaluated. Via the development of alternative versions of the St. Petersburg game, we were able to empirically test some of these solutions. Experts and novices behaved in accordance with Treisman's expectation heuristic when bidding for the right to play the various versions of the St. Petersburg game. When subjects were asked their preferences among the game versions. novices continued to behave in accordance with the expectation heuristic but a plurality of experts seemed to follow another strategy. This preference reversal and its implications and possible causes are thoroughly discussed. An alternative theory which mimicks the expectation heuristic is considered, and generalizations of the expectation heuristic and the St. Petersburg Paradox for z‐sided 'coins' (wherezis any integer greater than or equal to 2) are presented. It appears that no one solution is yet rich enough for the St. Petersburg parado

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper, 1 describe psychological guidelines for simplifying medical information — methods to aid the perception and recognition of abnormalities in medical test reports. These techniques resemble natural human editing strategies outlined in prospect theory. The methods pre‐edit data as humans do but to reduce human effort. I review empirical studies assessing these techniques and discuss needs for further resea

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractResearch on historical cases of policy decisions thought to involve groupthink nearly always has been qualitative, rather than quantitative. We propose that observable antecedents and consequences can be used to code incidents in a group's decision process, thereby providing the basis for more rigorous, quantitative analyses. As a first step toward such a quantitative case analysis, we coded statements from the investigative report on the space shuttle Challenger accident as positive or negative instances of the observable antecedents and consequences of groupthink. Positive instances of groupthink were twice as frequent as negative instances. More importantly, during the 24 hours prior to launch the ratio of positive to negative instances increased, then remained high. These results are consistent with the notion that the decision to launch the Challenger involved groupthink and provide a first step toward more rigorous quantitative analysis of historical or current decision processes.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractHow do managers expect the proficiency of users and the power of the computers to determine overall performance? Five different models are proposed: (a) a matching model in which optimal performance is achieved when the power of the system is judged to be compatible with the proficiency of the user, (b) an averaging model in which expected performance is the average of the values of user proficiency and system power, (c) a multiplying model in which performance is the product of the values of user proficiency and system power, (d) a human/computer ratio model in which performance is determined by the ratio of system power over total effort, and (e) a computer/human ratio model in which performance is determined by the ratio of user proficiency over total effort. The applicability of these models was assessed by having managers and students of management predict performance in human/computer systems from information about the user's proficiency with computers and the power of the system. Participants rated 16 combinations of user proficiency and system power from a 4 × 4 factorial design. The pattern of ratings indicated that 51 per cent used a multiplying model and 25 percent used an averaging model; whereas, only 6 percent used the matching model and 4 percent used a ratio model. The remaining 14 percent did not follow any model clearly. Implications of these results were discussed for the design of the human/ computer interface, training and selection of users, and the cost‐benefit tradeoffs for investment in user training versus equipment acquisiti

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY