摘要:

AbstractWe examined whether motivation affects people's use of statistical heuristics. In two studies, subjects had to decide how many instances to observe before making predictions. Half the subjects were led to believe that the observation of each instance would be relatively high in cost, and half were led to believe that it would be relatively low in cost. In both studies, only subjects for whom evidence collection was relatively high in cost accessed the aggregation principle and came to believe that aggregates afforded greater predictability than did single instances. Their belief that predictability increases sharply with sample size may have allowed these subjects to conclude what they wanted to conclude, namely that smaller samples would suffice for their predictions.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe present study is a cross‐cultural comparison of risk perception. A psychometric approach has been followed in order to examine quantitative risk judgments of different hazards and the ratings of these same hazards on various risk‐characteristic scales. A list of hazards was used that is comparable with other samples (American, Hungarian, Norwegian), but a certain number of hazards of an entirely different kind were added (e.g. social tensions, shortages of consumer goods) because these are important today for Polish society. In spite of the different list of hazards, the basic factor structure of risk perception turned out to be essentially the same as the structure found in other studies. There was considerable agreement in risk perceptions in the Polish and American samples. We also discovered a number of idiosyncratic qualities of risk perception in Poland, generally indicating the importance of the availability heuris

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractOf all of the new technologies emerging in the late 20th century, the production of artificial intelligence may provide the most profound impacts on organizational decision making. Because the development of artificial intelligence technologies and models has largely been based on psychological models of human cognition, the effects of their implementation in complex social settings have not been thoroughly examined. This paper is an attempt to generate research which will develop a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of artificial intelligence and its role in complex organizations. A set of 11 hypotheses has been developed which examine the relationships between artificial intelligence technologies and the dimensions of organizational decision making. It is argued here that the implementation of expert systems will lead to less complex and political decision processes, while the implementation of natural language systems will lead to more complex and political decision processes.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040308

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040309

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040310

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960040311

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY