摘要:

AbstractHindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecently, several theories of decision making and probability judgment have been proposed that take into account ambiguity (Einhorn and Hogarth, 1985; Gardenfors and Sahlin, 1982). However, none of these theories explains exactly what the psychological causes of ambiguity are or addresses the issue of whether ambiguity effects are rational. In this paper, we define ambiguity as the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a prediction. We show how this definition can explain why ambiguity affects decisions in the ways it does. We argue that there are a variety of rational reasons ambiguity affects probability judgments and choices in the ways it does. However, we argue that the ambiguity effect does not cast doubt on the claim that utility theory is a standard of rational choice. Rather, we suggest that the effect of ambiguity on decisions highlights the fact that utility theory, like any normative model of decision making only prescribes the optimal decision,given what one knows.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe paper describes and evaluates the GOFER course in decision making for high school students (Mann, Harmoni and Power, 1988). The course was based on principles from the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977) and was designed to provide adolescents with an understanding of factors that produce good and poor decision making as well as knowledge and practice of sound decision skills. Two evaluation studies were conducted to examine effectiveness of the course. Study 1 was conducted with young adolescents (12 year olds). It found a significant difference between students trained in the course and a control group on measures of self‐esteem as a decision maker, self reported decision habits and knowledge of decision strategy. Study 2 was conducted with mid‐adolescents (15 year olds). It, too, found a significant difference between students who took the course and a control group on measures of self esteem as a decision maker and self‐reported decision habits. It is concluded that while the evaluation study fell short of an ideal test, the GOFER course met the criteria of improving student knowledge, raising confidence in decision making and changing self reported decision h

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper argues that a violation of the independence condition, used by von Neumann and Morgenstern to characterize expected utility maximization, will always lead to the existence of choice situations in which information‐aversion is exhibite

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article explores how the sales budget is set in a business organization. Findings from a longitudinal participant observation study revealed that the sales budget is considered of great importance to the organization as sales estimates serve as premises for planning of production and supply and new product developments. It was observed that the sales budget was based on a narrow, inner‐directed perspective, almost looking away from important environmental driving forces such as competitors and customers. The findings also showed that individuals involved in the sales budgeting process behaved opportunistically, influencing the budgetary process and outcomes. Theoretical and normative implications are highlighte

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY