摘要:

AbstractA combined multi‐attribute utility and expectancy‐value model has repeatedly been found to yield a worse fit to choices than to preference ratings. The present study investigated two possible explanations for this finding. First, people's belief‐value structures may change in the choice task as they try to find the best alternative. Second, a difficult choice task may cause the decision maker to use simplifying heuristics. In the first of two experiments, subjective belief‐value structures were measured on two occasions separated by about one week. Immediately before the second measurement, different groups of subjects performed a choice task, gave preference ratings, or performed a control task. The results did not support an interpretation of the greater difficulty of predicting choices in terms of changes in belief‐value structures. However, the notion of simplifying heuristics received support by the finding that adopting simpler versions of the original model improved the predictions of the choices. In the second experiment, beliefs were measured immediately before or after each of a series of choices or preference ratings. The results indicated that although temporary changes in beliefs may occur, they can hardly provide a full account of the differential predictability of preferences an

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non‐random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious consideration

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe ongoing debate on the correct modelling of economic behaviour under risk makes heavy expositional use of the 'Marschak‐Machina Triangle'. This has also been used when constructing tests of the various competing theories. In this paper, we adopt a more direct approach ‐ byestimatingsubjects' indifference maps in the Triangle. Employing an interview technique, we find that most subjects have maps which are nearly consistent with those implied by Subjective Expected Utility the

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIt has been asserted that (I) tests of expectancy‐value models require within‐persons analyses and that (2) within‐persons analyses yield better predictions of behavioral tendencies than do across‐persons analyses. The first assertion is correct; the second is not. Justification for within‐persons tests of expectancy‐value models must be made on theoretical rather than empiri

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020407

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960020401

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY