摘要:

AbstractThe value of hypothetical rewards of various delays and durations, consisting of money or other commodities, such as automobile use and vacations, was measured by the psychophysical up‐down staircase method using an amount of unrestricted immediate money as the titrated variable. A model of temporal discounting based on implied constraints on anticipated consumption rate described the data. Further explicit constraints on consumption produced predictable deviations from the model. The concept that consumption is normally constrained together with time discounting may also explain the interaction between amount and delay of monetary reward in determining value and may provide the basis for a theory of addiction based on learning to increase consumption rat

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060202

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis study presents a process analysis of multi‐attribute decision making. The decision problems concerned the selection of the most suitable candidate for a job opening. The problems varied in terms of complexity, i.e. the number of candidates and the number of attributes used to describe these alternatives. Results show that with an increasing number of alternatives, subjects (N= 48) used fewer attributes for the evaluation of alternatives, and made, on average, less references to the alternatives. The type of judgment most often used was absolute dimensional (comparison of an attribute to an absolute standard) and was used more often at the beginning than toward the end of the decision process. Overall, judgments were predominantly positive. The percentage of positive judgments decreased with increasing complexity, and toward the end of the decision process. Significantly more judgments, particularly positive ones, concerned the finally chosen alternative as compared to the rest of the alternatives. Finally, analysis of subjects' usage of decision rules revealed that increasing the number of alternatives resulted in an increasing use of elimination strategies. Implications of these findings for the design of decision aids will be discusse

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060203

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis study examined the influence of the strength of belief structures on selected aspects of the decision‐making process. To examine these issues, a business‐acquisition decision scenario was studied in an experiment. Subjects played the role of a CEO of an electronics firm and were asked to evaluate the attractiveness of six potential acquisition candidates and to rate various aspects of the associated decision process. We presented half the subjects with information that the belief structure of their organization was extreme, agreed upon, and clear. The other half was presented with information that there was disagreement about the belief structure and that it was more ambiguous and less extreme. The results clearly showed that the decision process is different for people who were presented with an agreed‐upon, extreme, and tightly constructed belief structure when compared to those who received information reflecting a weak and loosely constructed belief structure. A strong belief structure resulted in less positive evaluations, information requested, and money allocated to explore incompatible acquisition candidates (and vice versa for a highly compatible candidate) when compared to subjects using a weak belief structure. In addition, subjects in the strong‐belief condition reported that their decision process would be characterized by less doubt, less time, less difficulty, and less conflict compared to subjects in the weak‐belief structure condition. Implications for both decision theory and practical decision processes are

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060204

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this study, decomposition is used as a tool for the assessment of continuous probability distributions. The goal of using decomposition is to obtain better calibrated probability distributions by expressing a variable as a known function of several component variables. Three target quantities were used in the study. Each was assessed holistically and using two different decompositions. Thus, each subject provided three distributions for each of the three target quantities. The recomposed assessments were compared to holistic assessments. The distributions obtained using decomposition were found to be much better calibrated than those obtained holistically. Two methods of aggregating distributions from multiple subjects were also examined. One involves aggregating (averaging) distributions before recomposing while the second method involves recomposing and then averaging distributions for the target variable. The second method was found to be slightly better, although both showed better calibration than was found in the individual assessments.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060205

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960060201

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY