摘要:

AbstractJudgments of evidence strength were obtained in a series of vignettes, each containing one or two items of evidence for each of two logically independent hypotheses. Each judgment concerned a designated subset of the presented evidence. Different groups of subjects encountered different but overlapping sets of evidence. We compared groups that judged the same designated evidence for the same hypothesis, but differed in exposure to surrounding (nondesignated) evidence. Results showed clear separation of relevant from irrelevant evidence and of designated from surrounding relevant evidence. This was particularly clear in the second experiment, where judgments of designated evidence remained invariant whether the surrounding evidence supported or contradicted the specified hypothesis. The conjunction fallacy was observed for judgments of evidence strength, but was substantially reduced by a simple instruction. Because subjects can separate evidence, it becomes possible to construct cardinally scaled standards of evidence strength using conjoint‐measurement method

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050202

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractLaboratory experiments have provided useful information about how people behave in risky situations. In particular, such experiments have allowed for the observation of many deviations from the predictions of expected utility theory. There is some dispute, however, over the effect of the use of real versus hypothetical money in these experiments and over the impact of experience. In this paper we describe auction experiments in which subjects faced a low‐probability risk with either hypothetical or real‐money consequences and varying amounts of experience. Using hypothetical payoffs resulted in behavior that provides a reasonable qualitative prediction of behavior with real consequences, but that seems to indicate a less diligent altitude toward spending the money as well as less concern about the r

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050203

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn a questionnaire study 106 Norwegian students rated natural and manmade hazards according to risk magnitude and public versus private responsibility for risk management. Another group of 50 subjects judged 36 natural hazards on nine risk dimensions used in previous psychometric studies of ‘manmade risks’. When ratings on nine risk characteristics for natural hazards were factor analyzed a three‐dimensional solution was found, with one active/passive dimension, one potency dimension, and one novelty dimension. This contrasts with the two‐dimensional solution found for manmade hazards. Responsibility for risk management was found to be related to the type of risk in focus, and different risk characteristics seem to play different roles for manmade and natural

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050204

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTwelve groups of five subjects each participated in a nonco‐operative game in which each member of a group receives the same endowment and must then decide independently and anonymously how much of it to contribute to the group benefit. Regardless of the size of his or her contribution, each member receives the same reward if, and only if, the sum of contributions is equal to or larger than a prespecified provision threshold. The results show that the level of contribution depends on the provision threshold, and that it increases when contributions are not restricted to be all‐or‐none. We present, discuss, and competitively test two models for this class of social dilemmas, one postulating maximization of expected utility and the other yielding an equitable sol

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050205

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960050201

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY