摘要:

AbstractIn the mind of many people chance and luck act as real but different causes of events. Even in strictly defined situations as casino gambling, people may perceive influences of luck that help to overcome the negative expectancy defined by the rules of chance. Interviews with gamblers in casinos confirmed this idea.In two experiments it was established that the distinction between chance and luck are also made by ordinary subjects in everyday situations. The results revealed that chance is perceived to operate when an event is surprising, an unexpected coincidence. Luck is perceived when an event implies the escape from negative consequences, or the achievement of something that is important and difficult.The distinction between chance and luck can explain why people are trapped by the illusion of control, even when it is clear that they have no influence on the physical causation determining the outcomes of events. They cannot change the outcome of the roulette wheel, but they can employ their luck, which helps them to place their bets on the winning number.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010202

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractPeople often believe in ‘illusory’ correlations between variables that are similar, but not actually correlated. This study suggests that judgments of organizational traits reflect illusory correlations, because subjects' perceptions of correlations between traits, and the predictions of Hage's (1965) ‘axiomatic’ theory, were more highly correlated with independent similarity ratings than with actual correlations between traits. Some methodological reasons why organizational‐trait theories might unwittingly produce illusory correlation predictions are discussed, along with possible

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010203

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTo forecast numbers appearing in sequence, do people just take some sort of average of past items or do they use temporal pattern information that they have extracted from the sequence? In an experiment, subjects forecast successive numbers generated by a first‐order auto regressive algorithm. Afterwards, they were asked to generate their own series of numbers to simulate the sequence they had been forecasting. It was found that (1) generation performance was good—subjects acquired an internal representation of the pattern in the sequence while forecasting it; (2) generation and forecasting performance were uncorrelated—this internal representation was not used for forecasting; (3) learnt ability to forecast a sequence did not transfer to another sequence that was of the same type but that subjects believed to come from another source; (4) subjects were good at estimating the probability that their forecasts would be correct but this ability declined with pra

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010204

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn two studies, questionnaires originally developed to study risk perception in the United States were administered to Norwegian students. Level of perceived risk in Norway was clearly below American scores for most hazards, but slightly above what has been found in a parallel Hungarian study. Norwegians were more concerned than both Hungarians and Americans about narcotics, but less than Americans about chemicals used in food and agriculture, and less than Hungarians about a number of common, everyday hazards. When ratings on nine risk characteristics were factor analyzed, a two dimensional solution was found with Fatal risk and Involuntary risk as the two most important dimensions. Ratings of general death risk, harm risk, and death risk for those exposed were highly correlated, but appeared to be unrelated to the number of people believed to be exposed to the hazard.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010205

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010201

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY