摘要:

AbstractMultiattribute analysis depends on measurement of values and weights. Unless these measures reflect the decision maker's true values and weights, the multiattribute formula may put a less‐preferred alternative in first place. To avoid such disordinality requires stringent measurement conditions: First, the values and weights must be on linear (equal interval) or ratio (known zero) scales. Second, these scales must satisfy a condition of common unit across disparate attribute dimensions. Most methods of range adjustment beg both of these measurement questions. Functional measurement theory can solve both problems and so can be useful in multiattribute analysis. Past work has established the operation of a general cognitive algebra as an empirical reality. The averaging model, in particular, makes possible the definition and estimation of weights and values as distinct psychological parameters. It can also solve the problem of common unit. Cognitive algebra thus provides a grounded theoretical foundation on which to developself‐estimation methodology, in which decision makers provide direct estimates of their values and weights. The logic is straightforward. Functional measurement can analyze global judgments to obtain validated psychological scales. These scales may then be used as validational criteria for the self‐estimates. Procedures to eliminate biases in the self‐estimates can thus be tested and refined in well‐learned multiattribute tasks, such as judgments of meals, in which global judgments are trustworthy. Once developed, such self‐estimation procedures may be used with some confidence for general multiattribute analysis. A number of studies from 20‐odd years of work on the theory of information integration are summarized to show good, although not unmixed promise for se

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractWhen branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch‐all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short‐term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underesti

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTwo experiments were conducted to investigate how individuals assess covariation with rank order data. In both studies, subjects were given sets of rank order data, each set consisting of ten items ranked on two characteristics, and were asked to estimate the degree of relationship for each set. Contrary to previous research, subjects' estimates of covariation in this task were quite sensitive to actual levels of correlation in the data and remained unaffected by simple variations in the way rank order data were presented. More importantly, it appeared that this sensitivity to covariation was due likely to the use of a simple heuristic referred to here as the total discrepancy heuristic. These findings are discussed in terms of the availability of simple heuristics in rank‐ordered versus other types of data and the consequences of using such heuristics in decision‐making conte

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960010401

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1988

数据来源: WILEY