摘要:

AbstractThe tendency of future stock prices to revert toward the mean of past prices was originally explained by the market overreaction hypothesis, which assumed that recent media reports cause investors to underuse base rate information. However, assuming that investors underweigh older stores of financial information cannot readily explain why mean reversion occurs primarily in January among former losers. An alternative psychological model based on intuitive time‐series extrapolation is presented. Investors' forecasts are held to vary as a function of the relative salience of, first, the recent versus the older levels of the price series, and second, the trend component of the price series. News reports, as normally provided by the media, are assumed to affect investors' forecasts by increasing the salience of any trend. Results of two market simulation experiments provided support for this assumption. Ways in which salience effects might account for the anomalies of the mean reversion phenomena are discusse

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractHeuristic strategies for search for the most economic price of a good (including search cost) are experimentally generated, rigorously tested and their utility compared with previous work. Strategies are identified which significantly out‐perform previous rules or are more likely to be used in practice, both with and without detailed knowledge of the underlying price distribution. Some ‘expert strategies’ are also sugg

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe goals of the present study were (1) to demonstrate again that subjects in social decision tasks involving shared resources cannot be modelled as strategic money maximizers, and (2) to investigate further factors that affect the use of what we have called social decision heuristics. Subjects were led to believe that they were the first of six group members to extract points from a common pool of points. Each point extracted could possibly be exchanged for cash. The independent variables were the magnitude of the payoffs that subjects could receive (highvs.low), the divisibility of the resource (divisiblevs.nondivisible), the perceived control of the last members over the group's outcomes (fate controlvs.no fate control), and subjects' social values (cooperativevs.noncooperative). The results indicated that subjects anchored their decisions on an equal division heuristic. Subjects withdrew the fewest number of points when the resource was divisible, the payoffs were low, and there was fate control. The most points were taken when the resource was nondivisible, the payoffs were high, and subjects were classified as noncooperative. A model of the choice process in this task is discussed.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractBoth motivational and cognitive accounts have been proposed for hindsight bias. In an experiment three groups of subjects analyzed a complex business case. One group received no outcome information. The other groups were told the outcome of the decisions made in the case. One group believed that the outcome they were given was real, the other saw the outcome generated by the toss of a coin. Both groups showed large and equal hindsight shifts on a post‐analysis questionnaire. This finding appears to weaken a self‐flattery explanation of hindsight shift, and gives support to a cognitive acco

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRisky decisions are often difficult to make or defend because assessments of key facts are themselves subject to uncertainty. Theory bearing on this second‐order ‘assessment uncertainty’ (AU) has found little practical application. A methodology is proposed for representing AU in a form where it can be understood, judgmentally checked and effectively used in common decision situations, including some guidance on how to elicit or indirectly measure AU. It extends well‐established personal probability logic, with primary focus on predicting shifts in first‐order factual assessments which might result from new developments — whether these are realistically possible or ‘ideal.’ The approach attempts to be prescriptive, in that its input can be readily measured, its output fits intended use and user, and the intervening procedures are logically sound without being too burdensome. Successful application is illustrated in the context of a regulatory decision on whether a reactor should be required to install a costly

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960030301

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY