摘要:

AbstractAnchoring and adjustment is a pervasive bias in which decision makers are influenced by random or uninformative numbers or starting points. As a means of understanding this effect, we explore two limits on anchoring. In Experiments 1 and 2, implausibly extreme anchors had a proportionally smaller effect than anchors close to the expected value of the lotteries evaluated. In Experiments 2 and 3, anchoring occurred only if the anchor and preference judgment were expressed on the same scale. Incompatible anchors and response modes resulted in no anchoring bias. A confirmatory search mechanism is proposed to account for these results.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070402

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis case study explores reference level effects on group decision making during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The group is composed of American President John F. Kennedy and his advisers. The results are consistent with much experimental evidence showing that reference levels play an important role in determining preferences. The results also extend the notion of reference‐dependent risky choice to the group level, where the group consists of seasoned experts who each have a different role to play within the group and who are dealing with an issue of great importanc

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070403

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractFollowing the study by Rapoport and Budescu (1992), two experiments are reported whose main purpose is to compare the generation of random sequences in one‐ and two‐person games. The first experiment addresses the generation of trinary series in two‐person zerosum games with asymmetric players. The second examines the generation of binary series using a between‐subjects design, and compares the cognitive processes operating in one‐ and two‐person games. Although both types of games result in similar deviations from randomness, they seem to induce qualitatively different cognitiv

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070404

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe present study deals with the question of whether judgments made by experts working in familiar contexts are affected by prior expectations and beliefs. Two experiments in which prior expectations were manipulated were designed to determine whether and to what extent polygraph examiners are affected by their prior expectations when analyzing and interpreting polygraph charts. Prior expectations affected the examiners' judgments when the polygraph charts did not include clear indications of guilt or innocence, but when the objective physiological evidence included strong indications which clearly contradicted the examiner's expectations, judgments were not affected by these expectations. Theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070405

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070406

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070407

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070408

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY