摘要:

AbstractWe ran two experiments to test whether people value objects more highly when they obtain those objects due to exemplary performance at a task. In the first, subjects who believed they had obtained a prize due to their performance on a classroom exercise valued it more highly than those who believed they had obtained it by chance. In the second, subjects who obtained a prize due to exemplary performance on a task valued it more highly than those who obtained it due to their poor performance. In both experiments, this ‘source dependence’ effect is approximately equal in strength to the endowment effect, which compares the valuation of subjects with and without the prize. We suggest a possible explanation for this source‐dependence effect based on associationism, and rule out two alternative explana

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070302

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper investigates the influence of message framing and personality variables on preferences over ambiguity in the context of multi‐attribute decision scenarios. Undergraduate subjects responded to scenarios in which one of two medical treatments was associated with ambiguous probabilities of treatment effects. Probabilities were either positively or negatively framed. Subjects indicated their degree of preference for one treatment over the other. Subjects' optimism, trait anxiety, health locus of control, need for cognitive structure, and current mood were measured. In two separate studies, subjects preferred ambiguity when probabilities were positively framed, and were neutral toward ambiguity when probabilities were negatively framed. Also, in both studies the preference for ambiguity in positively framed scenarios was greater for more optimistic subjects. The unexpected finding of ambiguity seeking may be associated with the use of different decision strategies in multi‐attribute versus single‐attribute deci

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070303

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe illusion of control refers to a phenomenon whereby people believe their chances of success at a task are greater than would be warranted by objective analysis. This article raises two questions. First, how robust is the illusion of control? Second, how might the illusion be ‘shattered?’ Previous experimental demonstrations involved situations that can be likened to unique or single‐shot gambles. If, however, the phenomenon is robust, it should occur in repeated or multi‐shot gambles in which the outcome depends on a series of gambles involving the same underlying random process. It should also appear in single‐shot gambles that are framed so as to superficially resemble multi‐shot gambles. We label this thestrongillusion of control hypothesis. On the other hand, because people have a better appreciation of probabilistic concepts in tasks they are able to represent as relative frequencies, the introduction of a multi‐shot or ‘pseudo‐multi‐shot’ context might cue people to the random nature of the task, thereby shattering the illusion. Theweakillusion of control hypothesis holds that the illusion of control will occur in single‐shot but not in multi‐shot or pseudo‐multi‐shot gambles. Two studies are reported that support the weak hypothesis. Alternative explanations are considered a

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070304

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of uncertainty and inconsistency on the judgment of human performance. The results indicate that the effect of inconsistency on judgment is not mediated by subjective uncertainty. We find that both the level and the extremity of judgment decrease with uncertainty. These effects are explained, respectively, by uncertainty aversion and by regressiveness. We also find that both the level and the extremity of judgment of human performance increase with inconsistency. These effects are explained by reliance on integration rules in which judgment is based primarily on some aspects of the information, while other aspects are, to some extent, ignored.

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070305

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070306

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070307

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070308

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070309

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070310

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0894-3257    

DOI:10.1002/bdm.3960070311

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY