1. |
Editorial |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 359-361
Peter G. Moore,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1995.tb00671.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
The Measurement of Unemployment in the Uk |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 363-405
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PDF (3120KB)
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983439
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Discussion on the Report of the Working Party |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 405-417
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PDF (1167KB)
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1995.tb00673.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 419-444
Chris Chatfield,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThis paper takes a broad, pragmatic view of statistical inference to include all aspects ofmodel formulation. The estimation of model parameters traditionally assumes that a model has aprespecified known formand takes no account of possible uncertainty regarding the model structure. This implicitly assumes the existence of a ‘true’ model, which many would regard as a fiction. In practicemodel uncertaintyis a fact of life and likely to be more serious than other sources of uncertainty which have received far more attention from statisticians. This is true whether the model is specified on subject‐matter grounds or, as is increasingly the case, when a model is formulated, fitted and checked on thesamedata set in an iterative, interactive way. Modern computing power allows a large number of models to be considered and data‐dependent specification searches have become the norm in many areas of statistics. The termdata miningmay be used in this context when the analyst goes to great lengths to obtain a good fit. This paper reviews the effects of model uncertainty, such as too narrow prediction intervals, and the non‐trivial biases in parameter estimates which can follow data‐based modelling. Ways of assessing and overcoming the effects of model uncertainty are discussed, including the use of simulation and resampling methods, a Bayesian model averaging approach and collecting additional data wherever possible. Perhaps the main aim of the paper is to ensure that statisticians are aware of the problems and start addressing the issues even if there is no simple, general theoretical fix.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983440
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
Discussion of the Paper by Chatfield |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 444-466
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PDF (2021KB)
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1995.tb00675.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
You Can Count on Us—With Confidence |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 467-489
Bill McLennan,
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摘要:
SUMMARYSince the early 1990s significant developments have occurred in official statistics, including new responsibilities, structures, collections, outputs and policies, and these will be described briefly for each of these separate but related roles. Similarly, many challenges remain relating mainly to effectiveness and cohesion which will be canvassed, together with the plans which are in hand to move the UK official statistical system forwards. The paper also comments on the international dimension of official statistics work, emphasizing in particular current developments with the European statistical system. The future for UK statistics is full of promise and challenges, and the author expresses his confidence that the Government Statistical Service will respond positively.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983441
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
Social Trendsand Social Change |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 491-504
Muriel Nissel,
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摘要:
SUMMARYMuriel Nissel, the first Editor ofSocial Trends, traces the history of the publication against the background of social and political change over the 25 years since it was first published in December 1970. She also looks at the availability of relevant statistics, a key factor in documenting changes in social conditions.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983442
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Predictions for England and Wales (1992–97): Sensitivity Analysis, Information, Decision |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 505-524
N. E. Day,
S. M. Gore,
D. De Angelis,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe backcalculation method has been widely used to reconstruct the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection process and to produce short‐term predictions for acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and it is the central approach on which the latest (1993) projection results for England and Wales are based. Typically, specific assumptions on the incubation time from HIV infection to AIDS and on the structure (parametric or semiparametric) of the infection curve are made; use of knowledge on the observed AIDS cases allows an estimation of the 'parameters' of the infection curve, reconstruction of the past and current HIV infection process and inference about future AIDS incidence. Results are often crucially dependent on the specific assumptions made and, given the great uncertainty about some of the quantities involved in the estimation process, sensitivity analyses become essential. This paper explores in more detail some aspects of the latest projections which have only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution has been affected by increased uptake of pre‐AIDS prophylaxis and treatment is discussed.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983443
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Weighted Cumulative Sums for Text Analysis Using Word Counts |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 525-545
A. F. Bissell,
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摘要:
SUMMARYMorton has pioneered the use of counts of 'habit words' in textual analysis. In particular his QSUM method, using overlaid cumulative sums (CUSUMS) of sentence length and habit word frequency, can display anomalies in the use of these words by separation of the two CUSUM paths. There is an appreciable subjective element in interpretation, and no obvious means of providing probabilistic criteria. This paper describes the application of weighted CUSUMS to word counts. They offer enhanced clarity and objectivity, and permit hypothesis tests or interval estimation based on conventional statistical techniques. Some methods for more detailed analysis are also outlined.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983444
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
Estimates of the British Jewish Population 1984–88 |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 3,
2018,
Page 547-562
Steven Haberman,
Marlena Schmool,
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摘要:
SUMMARYDuring the 20th century, estimates of the British Jewish population have been obtained by applying appropriate death‐rates to communal mortality data. This death‐rate method has become increasingly sophisticated with respect to the death‐rates used. The exercise reported here covers more than 22000 deaths recorded in the community over the 5‐year period. These indicate a Jewish female:male death ratio about 3% higher than that of England and Wales. An estimate of 308000 is suggested for the community, in which deaths‐related data are augmented by information about births within the community.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983445
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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