1. |
Editorial Note |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 1-1
Simon Thompson,
Tim Holt,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1994.tb00539.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
The Use of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis Information in Monitoring the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Epidemic |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 3-16
O. O. Aalen,
V. T. Farewell,
D. De Angelis,
N. E. DAY,
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摘要:
SUMMARYFor acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients, information may be available on the time of diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (first positive HIV antibody test) in addition to the time of AIDS diagnosis. This extra information may be incorporated into backcalculation of HIV infection curves. This also allows the estimation of the rate of HIV diagnosis among HIV‐infected individuals, a measure which is of obvious public health importance. A framework for this is described and then applied to data from England and Wales. Different exposure categories are compared. The incorporation of information on the total number of HIV diagnoses in specific exposure groups is also examined.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983501
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Bayesian Forecasting of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic in Scotland |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 17-30
Gillian M. Raab,
Sheila M. Gore,
David J. Goldberg,
Christl A. Donnelly,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe most commonly used method for acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) forecasting (backprojection) assumes that the incubation distribution of the time from infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to AIDS is known, and makes no explicit use of information on the number of individuals who have been infected with HIV. Now that we are further into the epidemic our predictions are more sensitive to assumptions about the incubation distribution which may now be influenced by pre‐AIDS treatment. At the same time we have gained more knowledge about the HIV infection curve in Scotland as a result of retrospective testing of stored samples. In addition to AIDS case reports data are collected in Scotland on CD4 counts for HIV positive patients under medical care, which give incidence data on CD200 cases (two consecutive CD4 counts below 200 or an AIDS diagnosis). We have developed Bayesian methodology to make use of our partial knowledge of both the incubation distribution and the infection curve to make short‐term forecasts of AIDS and CD200 cases. The range of forecasts from this approach includes the uncertainty in our specification of both the incubation distribution and the infection curve.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983502
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Estimating Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Incidence Accounting for Reporting Delay |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 31-40
D. De Angelis,
W. R. Gilks,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe number of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases reported in England and Wales in the recent past seriously underestimates the number of recent AIDS diagnoses, because of substantial reporting delays. We examine two methods for estimating AIDS diagnoses, taking account of reporting delays. The first is a method based on conditional likelihood making minimal parametric assumptions, with confidence intervals assessed through bootstrapping. The second is a fully parametric Bayesian approach estimated by Gibbs sampling. We apply these methods to AIDS reports in England and Wales from July 1983 to December 1992, and we compare the results.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983503
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
The Use of Backcalculation to Estimate the Prevalence of Severe Immunodeficiency Induced by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 41-56
Caroline A. Sabin,
Christine A. Lee,
Andrew N. Phillips,
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摘要:
SUMMARYAs patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) become more severely immunosuppressed, they are at increased risk of developing one of a number of opportunistic infections or lymphomas, which define them as suffering from the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Estimates of the number of individuals who could benefit from antiretroviral treatment and prophylactic therapies against the main opportunistic infections are not readily available, as many individuals infected with HIV are asymptomatic and unaware of their infection. Using the method of backcalculation, we suggest that there are currently at least 2161 individuals with severe immunodeficiency but not AIDS in England and Wales. We demonstrate that this figure is sensitive to the choice of model for the severe immunodeficiency period and to the assumed effect of pre‐AIDS therapy. Using a definition of severe immunodeficiency based on a single CD4 count rather than two consecutive counts leads to substantially increased estimates of the prevalence of severe immunodeficiency.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983504
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
A Note on Regional Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Projections |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 57-68
Sheila M. Gore,
Barry G. Evans,
Daniela De Angelis,
Roland Salmon,
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摘要:
SUMMARYSeparate acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) forecasts by exposure category were first published for England and Wales in 1990. A need for area as well as exposure‐category‐specific AIDS backcalculation can be suggested by geographical heterogeneity in the percentage of AIDS to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reports within exposure category; but feasibility depends on area by exposure‐category‐specific cumulative AIDS diagnoses. Separate projections of AIDS incidence for homosexual males in the Thames regions and the rest of England and Wales are indicated and feasible as shown. Within the rest of England and Wales, the regional similarities in the percentage of AIDS to HIV reports for homosexual males made it reasonable to assume proportionality of the regional subepidemics, and hence reasonable to apply scaling. Two straightforward methods of scaling are suggested, which differ only in the correction made for delayed regional reporting of AIDS diagnoses. Regional projections of AIDS cases infected by blood products should be based not on backcalculation but on the immunological monitoring of prevalent HIV‐infected individuals.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983505
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
Mathematical Models of the Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales: Mixing between Different Risk Groups |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 69-87
John R. Williams,
Roy M. Anderson,
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摘要:
SUMMARYA mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus, type 1, in England and Wales is described. The model mimics transmission within and between different sexual activity classes (or needle sharing classes in the case of intravenous drug users) and within and between different risk groups such as male homosexuals, intravenous drug users and heterosexuals. Patterns of mixing and sexual contact are described by mixing matrices whose elements define the degree of assortative (like with like) or disassortative (like with unlike) contact between different stratifications of the sexually active population. Wherever possible parameter assignments are based on published data but likely patterns of mixing are crudely estimated by fitting model projections to past temporal trends in the incidence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the different at‐risk groups in England and Wales. Many different parameter combinations are shown to fit past trends, and each has different implications for projections into the future. The importance of mixing patterns to future trends is highlighted. It is concluded that future trends are uncertain (on the basis of current information) particularly within the heterosexual population. Small changes in the values of key parameters induce significant changes in projected trends. Transmission models are shown to be of greatest value as tools to highlight needs for data for accurate projection and as a template for assessing the relative contribution of various factors to future trends in the incidence of AIDS.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983506
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
An Estimate of the Prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in England and Wales by Using a Direct Method |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 89-103
Johan Giesecke,
Anne Johnson,
Anne Hawkins,
Ahilya Noone,
Angus Nicoll,
Jane Wadsworth,
Kaye Wellings,
Julia Field,
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摘要:
SUMMARYKnowledge of the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive people in a country and of their distribution in different transmission categories is important for health care planning, for risk estimations and for targeting public health interventions. We used data on seroprevalence of antibody to HIV in defined subgroups of the population attained from unlinked anonymous HIV testing surveys and combined these with estimates of the respective sizes of these subgroups from an interview study on sexual attitudes and lifestyles. Seroprevalence in those subgroups not covered by the HIV testing surveys was derived from a series of assumptions and approximations. The estimated numbers of HIV seropositive subjects in each subgroup were added to give an overall total for England and Wales at the end of 1991. The overall estimate was 27180 HIV seropositive people, with lower and upper bounds of 20200 and 34300 respectively. Homosexual and bisexual men were estimated to constitute about half of the total number who were seropositive, and heterosexually infected people constituted approximately a quarter. The greatest numerical uncertainties applied to the number of HIV seropositive men who have had a male partner, but not in the last 5 years, and to the number of HIV seropositive heterosexual men and women who have no recognized risk behaviour. Overlap between the various subgroups defined by unlinked anonymous testing programmes is substantial, but could partly be adjusted for with data from the interview study. The estimates of this study are in the same range as those made earlier with this and other modelling strategies.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983507
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Completeness of Reporting Cases of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome by Clinicians |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 105-114
B. G. Evans,
A. McCormick,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThis paper examines various methods of estimating the proportion of cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) which are reported to the UK surveillance programme. The data sources used include laboratory reports of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) where symptoms suggestive of AIDS are given, clinical trials data, hospice data, reference reports of cryptococcal organisms, lists from clinics and districts, and death entries where AIDS, HIV, Pneumocystis pneumonia or Kaposi's sarcoma are mentioned. Reports on the AIDS database are matched for comparison with data from other sources to obtain an estimate of completeness of reporting. Transcription errors, aliases and lack of complete identifiers on data from one or both of the sources complicate the matching process and will give a falsely low rate of reporting. If the data source used for matching is not independent of the AIDS reporting system then high estimates may be obtained. All the data sources give values which are broadly in the same range and a figure for a completeness rate of 87% is the value finally used for the predictions report.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983508
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
Epidemics: Models and Data |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 157,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 115-129
Denis Mollison,
Valerie Isham,
Bryan Grenfell,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe problems of understanding and controlling disease raise a range of challenging mathematical and statistical research topics, from broad theoretical issues to specific practical ones. In particular, recent interest in acquired immune deficiency syndrome has stimulated much progress in diverse areas of epidemic modelling, particularly with regard to the treatment of heterogeneity, both between individuals and in mixing of subgroups of the population. At the same time better data and data analysis techniques have become available, and there have been exciting developments in relevant theory, ranging from random graphs and spatial stochastic processes to the structural stability of difference and differential equations. This progress in specific areas is now being matched by interdisciplinary cooperation aimed at elucidating relationships between the widely varying types of model that have been found useful, to determine their strengths and limitations in relation to basic aims such as understanding, prediction, and evaluation and implementation of control strategies. Such interdisciplinary work can be expected to make major contributions to the modelling of a wide range of human, animal and plant diseases, as well as to general statistical and biomathematical theory.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983509
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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