1. |
A Survey of Statistical Work on the Mackenzie River Series of Annual Canadian Lynx Trappings for the Years 1821‐1934 and a New Analysis |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 411-431
M. J. Campbell,
A. M. Walker,
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摘要:
SummaryThis paper falls into two main parts. The first reviews past statistical analyses of a very well‐known time series consisting of annual lynx trappings in a region of North‐west Canada for 114 consecutive years. The second describes a new analysis carried out recently by the authors, producing a model in which, after a logarithmic transformation, the series is generated by the superposition of a pure sine wave and a second‐order autoregressive process.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345277
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Some Comments on the Canadian Lynx Data |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 432-436
H. Tong,
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摘要:
SummaryWe re‐examine the annual trappings of the Canadian lynx over the years 1821‐1934 (inclusive), which have been reported and analysed extensively. For some references see Elton and Nicholson (1942), Rowan (1950), Moran (1952), Hannan (1960), Kashyap (1973) and Bulmer (1974). This paper shows that an autoregressive (ar) model of order eleven provides an acceptable alternative to the more widely adopted class of models with low order ar plus one harmonic component.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345278
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Forecasting the Sunspot Cycle |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 437-448
M. J. Morris,
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摘要:
SummaryThe problem of forecasting the development of the well‐known sunspot cycle of approximately 11 years from observations made early in the cycle is considered. Each cycle is described by a member of a family of curves with different parameters for each cycle. Forecasts are obtained using this model and these forecasts are combined with forecasts obtained from an autoregressive model. Forecasting the time of maximum sunspot activity and the maximum sunspot number is also discussed.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345279
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Discussion on the Papers by Mr Campbell and Professor Walker, Dr Morris and Dr Tong |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 448-468
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03835.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
Methods of Cohort Analysis : Appraisal by Application to Asbestos Mining |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 469-483
F. D. K. Liddell,
J. C. McDonald,
D. C. Thomas,
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摘要:
SummaryLongitudinal studies of occupational mortality have usually been analyseda priori:the cohort is subdivided in terms of potential stimuli and comparisons made between sub‐cohorts in their patterns of mortality. The alternativea posterioriargument compares the dead with the living, searching for differences in the potential stimuli. We selected the following methods for appraisal: (a) comparative composite cohort analysis (Case and Lea, 19SS), against external and internal standards; (b) the use of a fixed number of controls for each death (following Miettinen, 1969); and (c) that of Cox (1972) based on regression models. Method (a) arguesa priori, the othersa posteriori. These three methods have been applied to a large cohort study of mortality in the Quebec chrysotile asbestos‐producing industry, focusing on lung cancer. The methods agreed in demonstrating a clear direct relationship, which may well be linear, between excess lung cancer mortality and total dust exposure. Method (a), with an external standard, is useful for placing the cohort in demographic context. In method (b), only three or four controls should suffice for each case, leading to possibilities of improved quality of data. Similar advantages might be achieved for method (c) through some sampling of the living, but it would remain more complex; while it facilitates the study of interactions and, without sampling, can provide absolute risks, it was very expensive.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345280
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
Addendum |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 483-485
D. C. Thomas,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03837.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
Discussion of the Paper by Professors Liddell and Mcdonald and Dr Thomas |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 485-491
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03838.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
Some Recent Developments in Time‐Series Analysis |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 492-510
C. Chatfield,
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摘要:
SummaryRecently published books on time series are briefly reviewed. Then a critical assessment is made of recent practical developments in time‐series analysis, including the treatment of trend and seasonality, the Box–Jenkins forecasting procedure, adaptive filtering, Bayesian forecasting, spectral analysis, autoregressive spectrum estimation, the use of the Fast Fourier Transform and the identification of linear systems. The gas furnace data of Box and Jenkins are re‐examined with somewhat surprising results. Finally, the relationship between time and spatial processes is briefly considered.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345281
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Curious Correlations—A Reply |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 511-513
W. R. Cook,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2345282
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
Proceedings of a Special General Meeting of the Royal Statistical Society |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 4,
2018,
Page 514-516
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03841.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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