1. |
Editorial: Issues for Statisticians Involved with Court Cases |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 1-3
Stephen Evans,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1996.tb00697.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Political Polling: 95% Expertise and 5% Luck |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 5-20
Robert Worcester,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe record of British election polls was good — until the general election of 1992. The Market Research Society's inquiry into the performance of the polls in 1992 found inadequacies in the implementation of the sampling system used, evidence of a late swing and some reluctance of Conservative supporters to reveal their loyalty; but it generally endorsed the principle of well‐conducted quota polling and found that variations in methodological detail had nil effect on the results. The evidence is presented and some possible future developments to counter the ‘spiral of silence’ are discussed.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983464
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
How Might Opinion Polls be Improved?: The Case for Probability Sampling |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 21-28
Peter Lynn,
Roger Jowell,
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摘要:
SUMMARYA classification of sources of error in opinion polling is presented, and related to investigations of observed error in the polls at the time of the 1992 general election. This leads directly to implications for reducing the potential for error in future. It is argued that quota sampling bias, incorporating both selection bias and unit non‐response bias, is a major source of error. The adoption of probability sampling methods is proposed as a way to reduce this bias, and pollsters and their clients are encouraged to experiment with such methods. An example of a practical probability sampling design is described. Other sources of error which have been identified, and for which methodological improvement is suggested, are the treatment of item refusals, the treatment of those who say they ‘don't know’ for whom they will vote and the treatment of respondents' predictions of whether they will vote.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983465
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Discussion on Opinion Polls and General Elections |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 29-39
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PDF (908KB)
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983466
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
Reay and HopeVersusBritish Nuclear Fuels Plc: Issues Faced When a Research Project Formed the Basis of Litigation |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 41-47
Hazel M. Inskip,
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摘要:
SUMMARYA case–control study that found an association between leukaemia and lymphoma in young people and their fathers' occupational radiation exposure before conception provided the main evidence in a legal claim against British Nuclear Fuels plc. During the course of the litigation, in which all aspects of the study were scrutinized in detail, various issues confronted those involved in conducting or extending the original study. Of particular concern were the scientific independence of the investigators, the promises made to providers of the data regarding confidentiality and the researchers' perception of the scientific validity of the requests from the court.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983467
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
Trial Design Based on Surrogate End Points — Application to Comparison of Different Breast Screening Frequencies |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 49-60
N. E. Day,
S. W. Duffy,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThis paper deals with the use of surrogates for the true end point in clinical or prevention trials to shorten the duration of the trial and to increase the power. It is shown that the estimate of the relative hazard using predicted mortality from prognostic variables has lower variance than the estimate using actual observed mortality. The strategy is applied to the design of the British Breast Screening Frequency Trial. In this situation, screening more frequently can be expected to lead to reduced mortality by increasing the number of cancers detected by screening, and by the change in characteristics of the tumours brought about by earlier detection. We demonstrate how the use of surrogate variables to predict mortality leads to a threefold reduction in the variance of the relative hazard, and a result 10 years earlier than would be provided by the use of mortality itself. We suggest that the use of surrogate outcomes, although clearly hazardous or even unacceptable for investigating issues of primary importance, may have a useful role in resolving subsidiary issues.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983468
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
A Multilevel Modelling Approach to Examining the Effects of Area of Residence on Health and Functioning |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 61-75
Russell Ecob,
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摘要:
SUMMARYA multilevel modelling approach is used to ascertain the effect of area of residence, as measured by the random variance component at the area level, on a number of measures of health and functioning obtained on three cohorts of individuals (aged 15, 35 and 55 years) living in the central Clydeside conurbation in 1987. Gender, social class and material deprivation are each controlled for at the individual level. The variance component is allowed to vary at both the individual and the area level simultaneously according to age and gender groups in combination. Having controlled for individual characteristics, there was an association between area of residence and waist–hip ratio and reaction time, but not self‐rated health, limiting long‐standing illness, height or standardized respiratory function. Waist–hip ratio, reaction time, self‐rated health and height were also associated with the Carstairs–Morris deprivation index at the postcode sector level.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983469
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
Illness Behaviour and the Measurement of Class Differentials in Morbidity |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 77-92
D. Blane,
C. Power,
M. Bartley,
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摘要:
SUMMARYSummary measures of morbidity are necessary for research and health policy purposes but those used at present may provide unreliable estimates of the magnitude of social class differences in health. Class differences in illness behaviour will affect self‐reported health measures independently of any differences in health. The aspects of illness behaviour which are relevant will vary with the morbidity measure. It may be possible to test for illness behaviour effects during data analysis; if not, the effects need to be considered when results are interpreted. Future studies might develop a battery of standardized instruments to estimate the proportion of a population which is free of serious disease.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983470
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Multiplicity Considerations in the Design and Analysis of Clinical Trials |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 93-110
Richard J. Cook,
Vern T. Farewell,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe need for efficient use of available resources in medical research has led to the increased appeal of clinical trial designs based on multiple responses, multiple treatment arms and repeated tests of significance. In recent years there has been considerable methodological work pertaining to these types of multiple comparison, with the common objective typically being the control of the experimental type I error rate. Here we reconsider the appropriateness of these objectives in a variety of contexts and suggest that multiple‐comparison procedures are frequently adopted unnecessarily. In particular we argue that, provided that a select number of important well‐defined clinical questions are specified at the design, there are situations in which multiple tests of significance can be performed without control of the experimental type I error rate. The primary restriction for this to be reasonable is that test results are interpreted marginally.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983471
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
What's in a Mean? — an Examination of the Inconsistency between Men and Women in Reporting Sexual Partnerships |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 159,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 111-123
J. Wadsworth,
A. M. Johnson,
K. Wellings,
J. Field,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe mean rate of partner change is a key variable used in mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases and human immunodeficiency virus. This paper uses data from the British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles to explore the consistency of responses given by men and women to questions about sexual life style. In common with other surveys of this nature, men report a higher mean number of heterosexual partners than do women. Possible explanations for such a finding are given in this paper and we show that the discrepancies can be reduced by making certain assumptions. The importance of the age mixing of sexual partnerships is highlighted.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983472
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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