1. |
Stochastic Modelling of Riverflow Time Series |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 1-31
A. J. Lawrance,
N. T. Kottegoda,
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摘要:
SummaryStatistical work in hydrology on the topic of riverflow time series is discussed. The theme is the “data‐generation method” which in the present situation aims to produce simulations corresponding to a chosen historical riverflow series; they are required to resemble the historical data in respect of hydrologically important properties, such as runs of low flows. In practice the simulations are then used as input to a projected water resources system, but this aspect is not treated here. Capture of statistical resemblence entails a thorough statistical analysis of the historical series, and the paper describes the distinctive non‐Gaussian and periodic features of typical riverflow series; it emphasizes the hydrological importance of seasonality, marginal distribution, dependence and crossing properties. The paper then describes hydrological adaptions and use of some of the traditional time series and shot noise models. It discusses the hydrologically motivated long memory fractional noise and broken line models; here the aim is to bring them to the attention of statisticians for appraisal while at the same time making their theory more accessible to hydrologists. Places where the presently used methodology needs consolidating are mentioned, as are areas where further statistical and mathematical work would be of value.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344516
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Discussion on the Papers by Drs Lawrance and Kottegoda |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 31-46
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03722.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
A Reformulation of Linear Models |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 48-63
J. A. Nelder,
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摘要:
SummaryDissatisfaction is expressed with aspects of the current exposition of linear models, including the neglect of marginality, unnecessary differences between models for finite and infinite populations, failure to distinguish different kinds of random terms, impositon of unnecessary and inconsistent constraints on parameters, and lack of an adequate notation for negative components of variance. The reformulation, exemplified for crossed and nested classifications of balanced data, and for simple orthogonal designed experiments, is designed to integrate finite and infinite populations, random and fixed effects, excess and deficit of variance, to avoid unnecessary constraints on parameters, and to lead naturally to interesting hypotheses about the model terms.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344517
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Discussion on Dr Nelder's Paper |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 63-77
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1977.tb03724.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
Estimates of Voter Transition Probabilities from the British General Elections of 1974 |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 78-85
Colm McCarthy,
Terence M. Ryan,
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摘要:
SummaryMethods of estimating voter transition matrices are discussed and a technique based upon a quadratic programming algorithm is advocated. The method imposes the appropriate exact and inequality constraints on the elements of the transition matrix and can incorporate the effects of changes in the size of the electorate. Estimates are computed from a sample of constituencies for the British General Elections of 1974. The results show a high degree of party loyalty, with only a limited amount of vote switching between parties. Breaking the sample of constituencies down into politically more homogeneous sub‐groups suggests that there are systematic variations in the transition matrices.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344518
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
A Memory Model for Voting Transitions in British Elections |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 86-94
G. J. G. Upton,
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摘要:
SummaryA model of voting change is proposed which incorporates a memory factor. According to the model, individual voters are biased towards voting for parties which they have supported on previous occasions. The model is compared with the alternative multiple transition matrix and mover‐stayer models, for four‐stage data, and the results suggest that it provides a superior fit to the data. The implications of the model on Liberal party policy, and on swing, are briefly discussed.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344519
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 95-96
V. Barnett,
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摘要:
1. The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference.By Henry E. Kyburg, Jr. Dortrecht (Holland)/Boston (U.S.A.), Reidel Publishing Company, 1974, ix, 427 p. 22 cm. $39.50 (paperback $14.75).
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344520
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
Bayesian Analysis, Probability and Decision |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 96-96
F. R. Oliver,
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摘要:
2. Bayesian Analysis, Probability and Decision.By Hans Werner Gottinger. Göttingen, Vandenhoeck and Ruprecht, 1975. 116 p. 24 cm. DM.29.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344521
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Time Series Analysis of Forecasting: The Box‐Jenkins Approach |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 97-97
R. M. Loynes,
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摘要:
3. Time Series Analysis of Forecasting: The Box‐Jenkins Approach.By O. D. Anderson. London and Boston, Butterworth, 1976. vi, 182 p. 22·5 cm. £6·00.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344522
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
Population Density and Concentration in Great Britain 1931, 1951 and 1961 |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 140,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 98-99
D. A. Lury,
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摘要:
5. Population Density and Concentration in Great Britain 1931, 1951 and 1961.By J. Craig. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, London, Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1975. 148 p. 28 cm. £4·75. (Studies on Medical and Population Subjects, No. 30.)
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344524
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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