1. |
Freedom of Statistical Information |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 1-13
H. P. Wynn,
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344774
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Long‐Term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 14-41
J. C. Tanner,
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摘要:
SummaryMethods of forecasting long‐term growth of car ownership and of road traffic for Great Britain are described, and earlier forecasts for 1975 are compared with the actual outcome. Recent analyses of car ownership data are summarized, and this leads to a modified form of the forecasting model. This kind of forecasting presents many difficulties; a number of these are discussed.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344775
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Discussion of Mr Tanner's Paper |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 41-63
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.2397-2327.1978.tb03876.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
A Note on Forecasting Car Ownership |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 64-68
R. J. Brooks,
A. P. Dawid,
J. I. Galbraith,
R. F. Galbraith,
M. Stone,
A. F. M. Smith,
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PDF (277KB)
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摘要:
SummaryTwo estimates of the saturation level of car ownership are obtained in order to illustrate how a small change in the specification of the model can result in substantially different values for the estimated saturation level and hence of car ownership forecasts. Both estimates are based on an underlying logistic growth curve but different assumptions are made about the error structure.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344776
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
The Valuation of Decision Analysis |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 69-78
S. R. Watson,
R. V. Brown,
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摘要:
SummaryThe most obvious motivation for using decision analysis (applied decision theory), to offset its cost, is to “improve the quality” of the subject's decision. This paper explores approaches for quantifying this prospective value for a proposed analytic effort, bearing in mind that, like unaided decision making, it will fall short of perfect rationality. One valuation approach compares the subject's expected utility with and without the proposed analysis. its formal properties are examined and a graphical implementation procedure is suggested. A second approach assesses the reduction in the expected cost of irrationality, a concept analogous to opportunity loss.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344777
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
The Accuracy of the Means and Standard Deviations of Subjective Probability Distributions |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 79-85
J. C. Hull,
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摘要:
SummaryThe accuracy with which different procedures for assessing a subjective probability distribution are capable of providing estimates for the mean and standard deviation of the distribution is investigated. Two separate analyses are carried out. The first assumes that the assessor is capable of making a finite number of infinitely precise probability assessments; the second assumes that the assessor makes a finite number of assessments but that his ability to distinguish between different probabilities and different values of the variable is limited.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344778
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
A High Order Non‐Linear Markovian Model for Promotion in Manpower Systems |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 86-94
P‐C. G. Vassiliou,
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摘要:
SummaryA high order non‐linear Markovian model for a hierarchically graded organization is given in this paper. A stochastic model for promotion is given here based on two relevant features: An ecological principle that promotion rates depend both on the number available in the grade from which they come and on the expected vacancies in the grade to which they go; the relation between promotion and wastage from the grade. The promotion patterns are modified by the application of a principle of inertia which takes account of the tendency of staff to expect consistent promotion prospects. The use of the ecological principle in the determination of the equations of the model is different than in Young and Vassiliou (1974). An application of the model in a large firm subjected to reorganization is given.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344779
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
Smoking and Lung Cancer: A Cohort Data Study of Men and Women in England and Wales 1935‐70 |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 95-107
Joy L. Townsend,
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摘要:
SummaryThe aim of this study is to try to assess the proportion of lung cancer deaths which is due to tobacco smoking and to predict the likely incidence of lung cancer during the 1970s. The results are to be used in a project examining the overall economic consequences of smoking. The conclusions are summarised on pages 106‐107.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344780
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Probability and Statistics: Theory and Applications |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 108-109
V. Barnett,
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摘要:
1. Probability and Statistics: Theory and Applications.By D. A. S. Fraser. North Scituate, Massachusetts, Duxbury, 1976. xi, 623 p. 23·5 cm. £13·80.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344781
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
The Advanced Theory of Statistics |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 141,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 109-110
G. M. Clarke,
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摘要:
2. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. I (4th edition). By Sir Maurice Kendall and A. Stuart. London, Griffin, 1977. xii, 472 p. 25·5 cm. £14·50.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2344782
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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