1. |
What is Statistics? |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 1-20
David J. Bartholomew,
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摘要:
SUMMARYDefinitions of statistics abound but many fail to capture adequately the essential interplay of data and theory. It is argued that the ubiquity of variability and uncertainty, which characterize a statistical problem, establish the subject as a major player in science and all rational enquiry. Emphasis is placed on the breadth and unity of the subject and questions are raised for the Royal Statistical Society about its balance, publications and role in education.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983401
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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2. |
Inference in Forensic Identification |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 21-40
David J. Balding,
Peter Donnelly,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe problem of quantifying the weight of evidence in forensic identification is addressed. The essence of the problem is abstracted in a simple paradigm, the analysis of which yields valuable insights and highlights important distinctions. A special case of this analysis gives a resolution of the so‐called island problem. The paradigm is extended to assess the effects of several features which may be important in practical situations, such as possible alibis, heterogeneous populations of potential suspects and informative protocols for finding suspects. The analyses of the paper clarify several issues pertaining to the weight of evidence associated with matching deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) profiles and raise some new concerns. In addition, established concerns regarding the incorrect interpretation of probabilistic evidence by juries are discussed in the DNA profile context.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983402
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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3. |
Discussion of the Paper by Balding and Donnelly |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 40-53
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ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.1995.tb00608.x
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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4. |
Evaluation of Methods for Ecological Inference |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 55-72
N. Cleave,
P. J. Brown,
C. D. Payne,
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摘要:
SUMMARYIn ecological inference one uses data which are aggregated by areal units to investigate the behaviour of the individuals comprising those units. Aggregated data are readily available in many fields and within a wide variety of data structures. In the structures considered, the aggregate data are characterized by the absence of available data in the internal cells of a cross‐classification. The aim of the ecological methods is to estimate the expected frequencies of such internal cells, which may be conditional on chosen covariates. Four methods of ecological inference are reviewed and their properties and appropriateness considered. These methods are then applied to data for which the internal cells are known and their performances compared.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983403
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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5. |
An Assessment of Estimation Procedures for Multilevel Models with Binary Responses |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 73-89
Germáan Rodríguez,
Noreen Goldman,
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摘要:
SUMMARYWe evaluate two software packages that are available for fitting multilevel models to binary response data, namely VARCL and ML3, by using a Monte Carlo study designed to represent quite closely the actual structure of a data set used in an analysis of health care utilization in Guatemala. We find that the estimates of fixed effects and variance components produced by the software packages are subject to very substantial downward bias when the random effects are sufficiently large to be interesting. In fact, the fixed effect estimates are no better than the estimates obtained by using standard logit models that ignore the hierarchical structure of the data. The estimates of standard errors appear to be reasonably accurate and superior to those obtained by ignoring clustering, although one might question their utility in the presence of large biases. We conclude that alternative estimation procedures need to be developed and implemented for the binary response case.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983404
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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6. |
Two Decades of Family Change: Secondary Analysis of Continuous Government Surveys |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 91-106
Anne Harrop,
Ian Plewis,
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摘要:
SUMMARYSecondary analysis of General Household Survey and Labour Force Survey data shows how the structure of families in Great Britain has changed over the last 20 years. Dependent children are now less likely to be living in a couple family and more likely to be living with a lone mother who is either single or divorced. Families in simple households with just two generations have become more common over time. Lone mothers are now more likely to be living in simple households. The paper also considers how the number and ages of dependent children are associated with family and household type. Log‐linear models are used both to smooth the data and to predict family structure in the year 2000. Gaps in our knowledge about current family structures are discussed together with implications of the findings for social policy.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983405
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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7. |
Detection and Estimation of J‐Shaped Risk‐Response Relationships |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 107-121
Els J. T. Goetghebeur,
Stuart J. Pocock,
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摘要:
SUMMARYCurrent statistical approaches for analysing potentially J‐shaped relationships between a risk factor and disease outcome can be seriously misleading. For instance, a simple quadratic model is widely used but can substantially exaggerate the statistical evidence for an upturn to the left. Instead, a family of double‐quadratic models is proposed in which the relationship between risk factor and disease outcome is represented by two independent quadratic curves (one to the left and one to the right) joined at a low point to be estimated. Asymptotic results are derived for a semiparametric approach that can use standard software to assess the strength of evidence for the existence of a J‐shape and estimate the location of the turning point. Alternatively, the minimump‐value of a sequence of trend tests on subsets of data increasing from the left yields a simple but anticonservative initial screen of the evidence for a linear or quadratic upturn. We indicate how this naive minimump‐value can be corrected to a conservative level. For most practical situations, the clear demonstration of a J‐shaped relationship needs a much larger amount of data than is generally appreciated. The approaches proposed are illustrated with data on diastolic blood pressure and the risk of coronary death.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983406
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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8. |
An Empirical Investigation of Wagner's Hypothesis by Using a Model Occurrence Framework |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 123-141
Gary Koop,
Dale J. Poirier,
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摘要:
SUMMARYWagner's hypothesis asserts that as a country's level of development increases so does the relative size of its public sector. This study examines the empirical validity of Wagner's hypothesis. Based on data from 86 countries, the study employs a model occurrence framework to determine whether Wagner's hypothesis holds for the countries in which it is expected to. The results are discouraging for believers in Wagner's hypothesis. Indeed, Wagner's hypothesis is supported in only a third of the countries and its variable occurrence is not explained well in terms ofa prioriapplicability conditions either in sample or out of sample.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983407
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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9. |
Before and after Bradford Hill: Some Trends in Medical Statistics |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 143-153
Peter Armitage,
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摘要:
SUMMARYSir Austin Bradford Hill was an outstanding medical statistician and research strategist. This paper traces some of the historical strands which influenced the pioneering work of Bradford Hill, and of his predecessor Major Greenwood. Medical statistics has developed in many ways since Bradford Hill's retiral in 1961. We consider some trends in the methodology of the subject, in the dominating role of computers and in the scope and influence of medical statistics.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983408
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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10. |
Sir Austin Bradford Hill: A Personal View of His Contribution to Epidemiology |
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Journal of the Statistical Society of London,
Volume 158,
Issue 1,
2018,
Page 155-163
Richard Doll,
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摘要:
SUMMARYThe development of Bradford Hill's epidemiological research is traced from his use, as a novice research worker, of the then customary prevalence surveys, through case‐control studies, to cohort studies. In his studies of the relationships between inoculation (in general) and the development of paralytic poliomyelitis and between smoking and lung cancer and many other diseases, he set out for the first time the criteria required in the conduct of case‐control and cohort studies if they were to provide reliable results and cause‐and‐effect relationships distinguished from those due to bias and confounding.
ISSN:0959-5341
DOI:10.2307/2983409
出版商:Wiley
年代:2018
数据来源: WILEY
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