ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.1002/pam.4050100402

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractCurrent statistical approaches to modeling many economic relationships are grounded in traditional ideas of deterministic trends. Some of the failures of these approaches are due to inappropriate models using time series with “unit roots.” After a shock, unit root processes do not revert to some time trend, but rather can drift up or down without bounds. A “random walk” is a well‐known example of a unit root process. The purpose of this paper is to explain the importance of unit root processes to policy analysts who make or rely upon econometric models using time series dat. In particular, the presence of unit root processes in GNP, energy and electricity consumption exports, imports, and other variables suggests that modifications to the way economic relationships are estimated may be necessary. Once these modifications are made, many important parameters turn out to be much different, with substantive implications for both forecasting a

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324983

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSince 1975, vocational rehabilitation has represented a small and declining component of federal disability policy. This trend is perhaps reflective of the relatively crude assessment techniques that have been applied to the program in the past. Using the Virginia Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) program as a prototype, we outline how the data and methods of assessment can be improved for purposes of directing public policy. The key issues include identifying an appropriate comparison group for VR, analysis of longitudinal earnings data, and methods for refining measures of program cost. The analysis provides “fixed‐effects” estimates of net earnings impacts for each of three postprogram years stratified by disability classification and gender. These treatment impacts are compared to total and service‐specific costs. In general, this analysis suggests that evaluation of VR can be substantially improved and that these improvements can be attained at relatively modest analyt

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324984

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.1002/pam.4050100405

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes the passage of the Family Support Act of 1988 (FSA), focusing on the politics of welfare reform. It considers especially the role played by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation's assessments of experimental state programs designed to move welfare recipients out of dependency. The paper argues that those assessments were pivotal to the passage of FSA and that they demonstrate the growing potential power of policy research. It also argues that achieving that potential required conditions not often found together: timely and clearly relevant findings based on convincing research methods employed by an organization regarded as impartial, and the lucid and persistent presentation of those findings in many forms and at many forums.

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324986

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn 1986 the author was recruited by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan to draft new federal welfare reform legislation for the 100th Congress. The result was the Family Support Act of 1988. From the beginning it was planned that the bill would reflect the best knowledge available about helping poor families make the transition from dependence on welfare to independence and work. In contrast to the experience of the 1970s, when the “Witch Doctors” of social science seemed unable to agree on appropriate policies, research made a difference for FSA. The education, training, and work requirements in the legislation were substantially influenced by the evaluations of welfare‐to‐work programs conducted by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation, and the conduct of MDRC in the dissemination of these results contributed significantly to the effort's political success. Whether this marks a new phase in the connection between social policy and research is un

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324987

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper traces the development of the Family Support Act of 1988 in the U.S. House of Representatives. The author, a Republican staff member, examines the impact of research on the policy environment that made welfare reform possible, on the arguments presented in committee hearings and bill‐writing sessions, on the House debate, and on the final House/Senate Conference Committee approval. He concludes that social science research can and does play a useful role in formulation of public policy, although the domain of application is not as broad as many scholars think. However, given the partisan nature of policy formulation and the desire of social scientists to join the process, normal methods of quality control in social science research are too often forgotten, to the detriment of sound public decision‐mak

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324988

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper is an exploratory attempt to view the role that social experiments in general, and the income maintenance experiments and work/welfare demonstrations in particular, have played in the policy process through the lens provided by the knowledge utilization literature. In addition to suggesting that the decision to conduct a social experiment is rarely, if ever, made according to an essentially rational paradigm, this framework helps highlight the range of uses to which findings from social experiments can be put and the circumstances under which various types of uses are more or less likely. Specifically, the knowledge utilization literature suggests that rather than having the dramatic, decisive effects on policy choices that their promoters have often envisioned, social experiments are more likely to affect policy in a variety of subtle ways.

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324989

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3324990

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.1002/pam.4050100411

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY