摘要:

AbstractThis survey describes the impact of judgements and choices about low probability, high consequence events on the policymaking process. Empirical evidence indicates that normative models of choice, such as expected utility theory, are inadequate descriptions of individual choices. The ambiguity of low probabilities also affects decisions in ways that are not normative. Further, people exhibit biases in judgments about risks and probabilities. These findings have stimulated development of new theories, such as prospect theory and generalized utility theories incorporating attributes such as regret. The authors survey many of these empirical results and explore their implications for policy. They consider the role of information, economic incentives, compensation, and regulation in inducing socially desirable effects through the reframing of outcomes. They suggest that surveys and experiments can help analysts better understand the decision process for low probability events and design more effective public policies.

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325045

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article evaluates the feasibility of performing natural resource damage assessments under the current Superfund legislation. Using the analyses developed for two recent cases, it explains the sources of the substantial divergences between plaintiffs' and defendants' estimates of these damages. Three factors explain the differences in damage estimates: (1) the time horizon used and treatment of capitalization effects of past damages; (2) the extent of the market assumed in estimating the effects of a release of hazardous wastes on the demand for the affected natural resource; and (3) the character and availability of substitutes for the resource involved.

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325046

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article describes the events associated with the National Assessment of Chapter 1, a study mandated by Congress in December 1983 in anticipation of its 1987 reauthorization of Chapter 1. The assessment occurred at the time the Reagan Administration was seriously challenging many of Congress's favorite educational programs, including Chapter 1. Despite their serious differences in views about Chapter 1, both Congress and the administration expected the assessment to serve their own needs and each group was worried that the other would have undue influence on the assessment. The article illustrates the politics associated with evaluation by describing the activities of the assessment, the responses of each of these two audiences, and the efforts of each side to control the assessment's agenda. It raises questions about whether an evaluation can really serve multiple audiences.

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325047

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325048

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325049

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTo alleviate overcrowding in pretrial detention facilities, the City of New York established a program offering substantial budgetary increments to those district attorneys' offices in the city that reduced the number of long‐term detainee cases. The experience with this program suggests that the inherent assuptions underlying a monetary incentive strategy—the existence of capacity, the avoidability of goal displacement, and the efficacy of financial rewards—need to be carefully examined if implementation is to be succe

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325050

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.1002/pam.4050080407

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325052

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325053

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0276-8739    

DOI:10.2307/3325054

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY