摘要:

This study assessed potential human health risks posed by tributyltin in seafood purchased from U.S. seafood markets. In 1989 and 1990, samples of fish, bivalve molluscs and crustacea were purchased at local markets along the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts of the United States and along the Great Lakes (Lake Michigan). Samples were then analyzed for tributyltin, and the concentrations observed used to evaluate potential human health risks from consumption of market-bought seafood on the basis of available mammalian toxicology data. The assessment indicated health effects were unlikely from exposure to tributyltin in market-bought seafood during 1989 to 1990, shortly after peak tributyltin usage in antifoulant bottom paints on vessels in the United States.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289464

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This study reports concentrations of tributyltin in seafood collected from eight sites around the world and assesses potential human health risks. Samples of fish, crustaceans, cephalopods (i.e., squid), and bivalve molluscs were purchased from markets in two Asian cities, one Australian city, three European cities, and two North American cities. Samples were then analyzed for tributyltin, and the chemical concentrations observed were used to calculate potential human health risks from consumption of market-bought seafood. TBT residues in marketable seafood were consistent worldwide, averaging 185 ng/g dry weight. For different reasons, pelagic fish and bivalve molluscs tended to have slightly higher residues than squid, demersal fish (sole/flounder) and crusta-cea. TBT concentrations in seafood from France and Korea were at least twice as high as those from the other countries. Based on average per capita seafood consumption rates for each country, the amounts of TBT ingested did not exceed proposed thresholds for chronic effects, suggesting negligible risks to the average consumer.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289473

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Both ecological field studies and attempts to extrapolate from laboratory experiments to natural populations generally encounter the high degree of natural variability and chaotic behavior that typify natural ecosystems. Regardless of this variability and non-normal distribution, most statistical models of natural systems use normal error which assumes independence between the variance and mean. However, environmental data are often random or clustered and are better described by probability distributions which have more realistic variance to mean relationships. Until recently statistical software packages modeled only with normal error and researchers had to assume approximate normality on the original or transformed scale of measurement and had to live with the consequences of often incorrectly assuming independence between the variance and mean. Recent developments in statistical software allow researchers to use generalized linear models (GLMs) and analysis can now proceed with probability distributions from the exponential family which more realistically describe natural conditions: binomial (even distribution with variance less than mean), Poisson (random distribution with variance equal mean), negative binomial (clustered distribution with variance greater than mean). GLMs fit parameters on the original scale of measurement and eliminate the need for obfuscating transformations, reduce bias for proportions with unequal sample size, and provide realistic estimates of variance which can increase power of tests. Because GLMs permit modeling according to the non-normal behavior of natural systems and obviate the need for normality assumptions, they will likely become a widely used tool for analyzing toxicity data. To demonstrate the broad-scale utility of GLMs, we present several examples where the use of GLMs improved the statistical power of field and laboratory studies to document the rapid ecological recovery of Prince William Sound following theExxon Valdezoil spill.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289482

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Conceptual models are representations of the assumed relationship between sources and effects. They serve three important purposes. (1) Their creation compels assessors to think through and clarify their assumptions concerning the activities being assessed. (2) They serve as a communication tool for conveying those assumptions to risk managers and stakeholders. (3) They provide a basis for organizing and conducting the risk assessment. Conceptual models for risk assessments of chemical contaminants have not been problematical because they simply portray the flow of the contaminant from a source to a receptor that experiences toxic effects. However, ecological risk assessments must increasingly deal with direct and indirect effects on multiple endpoint receptors and with multiple complex activities including both physical effects and toxic effects. This complexity may result in conceptual models that are incomplete, ambiguous, or simply too complex to be understood. This paper presents a strategy for creating conceptual models for complex ecological risk assessments that are not only complete but also clear and comprehensible. The strategy also promotes efficiency by creating modular component models for activities, sites, and receptors that can be reused in different combinations in different assessments.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289491

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The standard framework for ecological risk assessment does not explicitly address multiple activities. Although this has not prevented its use for assessments of risks from multiple agents, the routine assessment of complex programs or of multiple agents acting on a site, watershed or region would be aided by use of a framework that is designed for that purpose. The framework proposed in this paper is modular with respect to the individual activities which makes the assessment more manageable and more efficient when the same activities are addressed in multiple programs or at multiple sites. It explicitly allows for analysis of indirect effects in terms of causal chains. It includes links to other risk assessments for which changes in ecological conditions are the hazardous agent. For example, changes in ecological condition may create risks to agricultural economies or to the cultural resource values of a site. Finally, the framework includes a standard approach to estimating the combined effects of the multiple agents acting on a receptor.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289509

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The purpose of this study was to examine bivariate relationships among cancer slope factor (CSF) and acute toxicity in rats and salmonid fish. Chemicals (n=43) were selected based on the availability of both oral CSF and acute toxicity data (rat oral median lethal dose [LD50] or salmonid median lethal concentration [LC50]). Rat oral LD50, salmonid LC50, and oral CSF data were log-transformed, and a Bonferroni-adjusted alpha level was set at 0.05 for subsequent correlation analysis. A significant correlation was observed between CSF and rat oral LD50 (r=−0.61) but not for CSF and salmonid LC50 (r=−0.29). Moreover, rat and fish acute toxicity were not significantly correlated (r=0.38). The significant correlation between CSF and rat oral LD50 compares favorably with published results reported in related studies. Accordingly, these results support prediction of carcinogenic potency, expressed as oral CSF, based in part on acute toxicity in rats.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289518

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A method for classifying chemicals with respect to carcinogenic potential based on short-term test results is presented. The method utilizes the logistic regression model to translate results from short-term toxicity assays into predictions of the likelihood that a chemical will be carcinogenic if tested in a long-term bioassay. The proposed method differs from previous approaches in two ways. First, statistical confidence limits on probabilities of cancer rather than central estimates of those probabilities are used for classification. Second, the method does not classify all chemicals in a data base with respect to carcinogenic potential. Instead, it identifies chemicals with highest and lowest likelihood of testing positive for carcinogenicity in the bioassay. A subset of chemicals with intermediate likelihood of being positive remains unclassified, and will require further testing, perhaps in a long-term bioassay. Two data bases of binary short-term and long-term test results from the literature are used to illustrate and evaluate the proposed procedure. A cross-validation analysis of one of the data sets suggests that, for a sufficiently rich data base of chemicals, the development of a robust predictive system to replace the bioassay for some unknown chemicals is a realistic goal.

ISSN:1080-7039    

DOI:10.1080/10807039991289527

出版商:TAYLOR & FRANCIS    

年代:1999

数据来源: Taylor