1. |
Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 675-685
RobertL. Winkler,
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摘要:
This article concerns a study in which personal probability assessments regarding the outcomes of football games were obtained. The results reported here, which include a detailed investigation of the assessments, an evaluation of the assessments in an inferential context and in a decision-theoretic context, and a discussion of the performance of a consensus, show that methods such as scoring rules and bets are useful in leading individuals to make careful probability assessments. Considerable variability existed among subjects, however, with predictions determined by mechanical schemes and by the organized betting market proving superior to those of many of the subjects.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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2. |
On the Estimation of Lifetime Income |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 686-692
MartinM. G. Fase,
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摘要:
Lifetime income, say Vs, may be defined as Vs= ΣTt=sctytwhere ytis income (earnings) at age t, ctis some discount rate and s is the age an individual enters the labor force. Obviously, yti.e., the income path over the individual's span of active life, plays a crucial part in the calculation of Vs. Mostly graphical methods have been employed for estimating the income age profile. This article presents a statistical framework for estimating lifetime income. Moreover, the first and second moments of the distribution of lifetime income are derived, and these results are applied to Dutch income data.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482330
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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3. |
On the Correlation between Metropolitan Area In- and Out-Migration by Occupation |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 693-701
LeroyO. Stone,
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摘要:
United States and Canadian Census data agree in showing a marked similarity in occupational structure between in-migration and out-migration for metropolitan areas, using either migration ratios or the actual numbers of migrants. Possible reasons for this finding, as well as various defects in the Census data as a source of information on the occupational characteristics of migrants, are noted.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482331
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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4. |
The Optimal Measure of Concentration |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 702-706
Duncan Bailey,
StanleyE. Boyle,
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摘要:
Most objections to the use of simple discrete concentration measures note that such measures fail to take into account the number and individual sizes of firms in an industry. Proponents of the use of cumulative concentration ratios (Herfin-dahl, etc.) contend that if individual firm-size information were available, superior results would be obtained. In assessing the validity of these objections, the authors find that (1) no one of the standard concentration indexes appears superior to any others; and (2) the number and size distribution of individual firms does not seem to affect materially the results obtained.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482332
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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5. |
Tailored Testing, an Application of Stochastic Approximation |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 707-711
FredericM. Lord,
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摘要:
Some stochastic approximation procedures are considered in connection with the following problem. How shall we choose a sequence of test questions in order to estimate as accurately as possible a given examinee's standing on some psychological dimension? Illustrations are given evaluating certain procedures in a specific context.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482333
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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6. |
Prediction and Control of the Size of an Input-Output System |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 712-719
JohnJ. Wiorkowski,
WilliamR. McLeod,
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摘要:
In many applications of stochastic processes, there is a need not only to predict the future values of the process, but also to control the magnitude of these values. For example, a hospital administrator is interested in keeping the occupancy of his hospital as close to capacity as possible. In this article, the first and second moment structure of such a process is derived under very general conditions. These results are utilized in determining control procedures through the regulation of input to the process. The application of these procedures is illustrated in the context of a hospital for the control of occupancy.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482334
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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7. |
Processing Survey Data with Ordered Alternative Hypotheses |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 720-724
CharlesH. Proctor,
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摘要:
Testing the hypothesis of equality of means, as in a one-way analysis of variance, against the hypothesis of a particular ordering of the means can be done in two ways. One approach uses the maximum likelihood philosophy while the other uses a single degree of freedom contrast with coefficients chosen to be best in some sense. These two methods are applied to some data from a small scale social survey so as to illustrate their calculations and conclusions. Although the single degree of freedom approach may be accused of arbitrariness in scores, still it is relatively more convenient computationally and permits somewhat more comprehensive conclusions.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482335
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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8. |
Experiments in Obtaining Consumer Expenditures by Diary Methods |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 725-735
Seymour Sudman,
Robert Ferber,
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摘要:
This article reports the results of a series of experiments to determine optimum forms and procedures for collecting information on frequent nondurable expenditures. A diary arranged by product groups resulted in higher cooperation and better reporting of expenditures than did either journal or outlet type diaries. Both cooperation and reported level of expenditures dropped as the length of the reporting period increased, but the drop was lowest on the product diaries. Use of a gift increased cooperation and level of reporting. An experiment with tape recorders also produced promising results and seemed to offer a means of collecting such data from people not receptive to diary methods.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482336
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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9. |
Inference in Two-Phase Regression |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 736-743
DavidV. Hinkley,
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摘要:
Procedures are outlined for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood confidence regions in the intersecting two-phase linear regression model. The procedures are illustrated on a small set of data, and the distributional properties are examined empirically.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482337
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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10. |
Regression Updating |
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Journal of the American Statistical Association,
Volume 66,
Issue 336,
1971,
Page 744-748
JohnM. Chambers,
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摘要:
An efficient, stable procedure for adding rows to a regression model is given, along with a corresponding procedure for deleting a row. The inherent instability of the latter problem is discussed. The numerical dangers of a commonly used method are pointed out. An example and listings are included.
ISSN:0162-1459
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482338
出版商:Taylor & Francis Group
年代:1971
数据来源: Taylor
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