摘要:

A model for birth forecasting based on prediction of the so-called “birth order probabilities” is constructed. The relation between this model and recent models of fertility prediction is derived. Birth forecasts with approximate probability limits for the U.S. for the period 1983–1997 are generated. The performance of the proposed model in predicting future fertility is tested by fitting time series models to part of the available series (1917–1982) and ultimately generating birth forecasts for the remainder of the period, then comparing these forecasts with the actual data. Finally, the accuracy and precision of the birth forecasts in this study are compared with those of similar studies.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478317

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Geologists often evaluate aggregate volumes of discovered plus undiscovered oil and/or gas in a petroleum basin by use of geologic-volumetric methods. Although sophisticated geological reasoning may be employed, the essential idea behind these methods is simple: estimate (a) the volume of hydrocarbon bearing sediment in the basin, (b) the amount of hydrocarbons present per unit volume of sediment, and (c) the fraction of hydrocarbons present per unit volume that is technologically recoverable. The product of (a) and (b) is interpretable as a point estimate of the sum of amounts of oil and gas in place in individual oil and gas deposits (fields) in the basin. The product of (a), (b), and (c) is a point estimate of amounts of oil and gas recoverable from all individual deposits in the basin.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478318

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A new method is proposed for imputation of missing values in sample survey data. The procedure uses standard statistical methodology, permits a general specification of the nonresponse process, and does not impose specific model assumptions. Prior information from past similar surveys or from other sources may be incorporated in a routine manner.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478319

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article considers the problem of testing for intrablock or intracluster correlation in regression disturbances that may occur when cluster or two-stage sampling data is used in regression analysis. It points out that the one-sided Lagrange multiplier test is locally best invariant. An empirical power comparison suggests that if the block structure is known this test should be used. Otherwise the Durbin—Watson test provides a useful test, especially in large samples.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478320

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478321

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

An unbiased estimator is derived for the mean squared error of any unbiased or biased estimator that is expressible as a linear combination of independent sums of squares. Further, it is shown that, for the classical balanced variance component models, this estimator is the best invariant unbiased estimator for the variance of the ANOVA estimator and for the mean squared error of the nonnegative minimum biased estimator. As an example, the balanced one-way classification model with random effects is considered.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478322

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Conditions for the existence of asymptotically unbiased, nonnegative quadratic estimates of individual variance components in general ANOVA models are investigated. A simple necessary condition for general models is obtained. Necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained in the case of random, balanced nested classification models and the random unbalanced one-way model. The investigation demonstrates the need for exercising caution when employing nonnegative quadratic estimates of individual variance components in practice.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478323

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The problem of estimating a ratio of variance components in the balanced one-way random effects model is considered. It is shown that in terms of mean squared error, the ML, REML (or truncated ANOVA), and Bayes modal estimators (using the noninformative prior) are inadmissible. An estimator that dominates all three is derived. Two other estimators that are adaptive in nature are also introduced. The new estimators are shown to possess much-improved mean squared error properties. The results easily extend to balanced higher-way random or mixed effects models.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478324

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Snedecor and Cochran (1967, p. 324) observed that an application of different treatments to otherwise homogeneous experimental units often results in groups that are different not only in means but also in variances. The usual one-way classification procedure assumes a priori the homogeneity of variances among different groups and tests the equality of means only. Thus motivated by the problem of simultaneously testing the equality of means and the equality of variances of several normal populations, I suggest in this article a simple and an asymptotically optimal test. The suggested test is based on the combination of two independent tests, namely (a) the test for the equality of means given that all variances are equal but unspecified and (b) the test for the equality of variances when all means, not necessarily all equal, are unspecified. Tests (a) and (b) are combined by the Fisher method (1950, p. 99). Littell and Folks (1973) showed that the Fisher method of combining two or more independent tests is at least as good as any other optimal method. Using this fact and the results of Hsieh (1979) on the Bahadur optimality of the individual tests, the suggested test was found to be asymptotically optimal (details can be obtained from the author on request) in the sense of Bahadur (1960) efficiency. Further, the test can be applied easily using existing statistical tables. Examples where this test can be applied include the analysis of repeated measurements, the profile analysis of several groups, and, in general, the analysis of one-way classified experiments.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478325

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Simultaneous confidence intervals for percentiles of the normal regression model similar to those given by Steinhorst and Bowden (1971) are considered. Kanofsky's (1968) confidence band for a single normal distribution is modified and extended to the regression model. The confidence bands that are simultaneous in all percentiles provide corresponding confidence bands for the cumulative conditional normal distribution functions. The various procedures are compared with respect to bandwidth.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478326

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor