摘要:

Utilizing recently deflated and reconciled U.S. Department of Commerce input-output data from 1947, 1958, 1961, 1963, and 1966, this paper presents an empirical test of the accuracy of input-output forecasts in current dollars and in constant dollars. While the results vary considerably among industries, in general constant-dollar forecasts are more accurate in the long run while in the short run the results are mixed. The implications of these findings for input-output forecasting and research are discussed.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481527

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A formula that obtains the number retiring in each period of a birth cohort's lifetime is derived from labor force participation rates and population data. It is demonstrated that trends in labor force participation of older men and in average retirement age need not move in the same direction. Applying the formula to the available data for American men, truncated working life tables between ages 52.5 and 72.5 are calculated for cohorts born between 1866 and 1909. The conditional mean retirement age is found to have been stable around age 65, while the variance of retirement age has decreased over time.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481528

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Four bases, with variants, of estimating the number of centenarians in the United States are described: (a) direct use of Medicare records; (b) the forward-survival method; (c) the vital statistics method; and (d) population reconstruction using death statistics. Estimates for each year, 1950, 1960, and 1970, for sex and race groups are presented separately and compared with the census counts. The plausibility and accuracy of the estimates derived by the various methods are discussed, as well as possible reasons for the overstatement of centenarians in recent censuses.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481529

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A simulation model of enforcement of the federal new source fly ash standard for coal-fired power plants indicates the standard is likely to be frequently violated. This is partly due to a pollution control device certification test which allows the average of as few as three tests to be used as an indicator of compliance. In accordance with the central limit theorem, this can lead to selection of inadequate control devices. Enforcement systems must account for the stochastic properties of pollution control devices and the implications of certification test sampling procedures for firm behavior if effective enforcement is to be achieved.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481530

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper deals with income distribution of capital gains and their effect on measures of income inequality for 1962. Aggregate accrued gains are allocated to various income classes by using microdata from the Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers. The results show that accrued gains are distributed more unevenly than money income. The Gini coefficient drops from 0.41 to 0.35 when accrued losses for 1962 are subtracted from income, but it increases to 0.43 when average gains for 1960–64 are added to income. Variance of natural logarithms, the other measure of inequality used, also shows a similar pattern.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481531

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper shows that the linear filter version of the Census X-11 program for time-series decomposition can be approximately justified in terms of an additive model with stochastic trend, seasonal and noise components. Optimal estimates of the trend and seasonal components are obtained from the model and found to be in close agreement with the corresponding estimates for the Census procedure. This approach makes it possible to assess the appropriateness of the Census method. Two examples are given, one showing that the use of the X-11 procedure is largely appropriate and the other much less so.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481532

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The method presented here assumes that the variable under consideration is a weighted moving average of annual values, with weights to be estimated by means of quadratic programming. This multivariate (MV) method is used to estimate quarterly income figures on the basis of annual income data in quarterly consumption functions for the U.S. and the Netherlands. The MV method appears to perform slightly better than the competing single-variate (SV) smoothing methods of Feibes, Boot and Lisman with respect to parameter estimates, and smallness and randomness of the differences between calculated and observed values of consumption.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481533

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Cross-validation techniques involve omitting a portion of the available data, fitting a prediction function to the portion remaining, and then testing the fitted function on the omitted data. Ideally, one would like to repeat this process on all possible splits. In many instances, this is not computationally feasible. This paper argues and demonstrates, using half samples by way of illustration, that the balanced sampling techniques developed for the analysis of complex sample survey data provide an efficient way of sampling the population of all possible splits.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481534

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A problem in whichkinstruments are used simultaneously to measure the same response is discussed from a Bayesian viewpoint, generalizing previous work for thek= 2 case [2]. The solution is applied to an example involving the burning times of 29 similar fuses measured byk= 3 observers.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481535

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article reports an empirical study of the nannull distribution of Kendall's coefficient of concordanceWwhen used in estimation and hypothesis testing procedures for the coefficient of reliability,p.This was based on data satisfying the assumption of a normal component of variance model formretests on each ofnsubjects or marginal transformations of such data. For the range of parameters studied,Km, n(ρ*)(m− 1)W/(1 −W) is approximately distributed asFv1,v2for a properly chosen constantKm, n(ρ*),v1= n− 1 − 2/m,v2= (m− 1)v1.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1976.10481536

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1976

数据来源: Taylor