摘要:

The geographic mapping of age-standardized, cause-specific death rates is a powerful tool for identifying possible etiologic factors, because the spatial distribution of mortality risks can be examined for correlations with the spatial distribution of disease-specific risk factors. This article presents a two-stage empirical Bayes procedure for calculating age-standardized cancer death rates, for use in mapping, which are adjusted for the stochasticity of rates in small area populations. Using the adjusted rates helps isolate and identify spatial patterns in the rates. The model is applied to sex-specific data on U.S. county cancer mortality in the white population for 15 cancer sites for three decades: 1950–1959, 1960–1969, and 1970–1979. Selected results are presented as maps of county death rates for white males.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478816

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The importance of chemically induced mutation for human health is discussed briefly, and the biological basis for the primary in vitro assay for mutagenicity, the AmesSalmonella/microsome assay, is reviewed. A previous analysis for Ames test data, based on two mathematical models of the competing risks of mutation and toxicity, is shown to have inflated false-positive rates. A reason for this is the existence of local singularities in the Fisher information matrix. A new likelihood ratio test incorporating a pretest of a nuisance parameter is proposed, and its size is validated with replicated experimental data through an analysis based on a finite-mixture-of-binomials model.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478817

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478818

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept ofO-Kiloss to the inference of genetic linkage. The prior information proposed by Elston and Lange (1975) was used. To help geneticists to understand the implications of the loss function and the Bayes decision rule, the Bayes decision procedure proposed in this article was suggested to be treated as a conventional test statistic. Then it seems almost natural to compare the performance of power of the statistic proposed here with that of the lod score. The simulation result shows that the Bayes decision procedure proposed here and the lod score are of almost equivalent power. This may show that the prior distribution for linkage, derived by Elston and Lange (1975), truly reflects the information about the human gene map and the size of chromosomes.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478819

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article reports an exploratory analysis of human-rights data compiled for 74 countries during 1982–1983. The information is combined with social, demographic, and economic indexes, then subjected to the scrutiny of CART, nearest-neighbor clustering, and other classification and clustering algorithms. Human-rights data separate most nations into one of seven categories; these categories can also be accurately predicted from widely available social and economic indexes. The results suggest that one need monitor only a small number of human-rights indexes to capture most of the original information, thus reducing the cost and complexity of human-rights assessment. Also, the analysis discovers socioeconomic indexes associated with certain patterns of human-rights violation, and this may enable a better understanding of climates that foster compliance with the International Bill of Rights.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478820

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

When multiple groups are shown in a scatterplot each stratum is represented by a different symbol; for example, three strata might be coded using red, green, and yellow circles. Various symbol types were compared by behavioral experiment: Subjects were fastest when strata were coded using different colors and slowest when strata were coded with confusable letters—but there were no differences in accuracy. Accuracy differed only when processing time was restricted, again with different colors and confusable letters representing the two extremes. We conclude that color is the optimal symbol type and show that measuring response latency in addition to accuracy is essential in research on graphical perception.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478821

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension. We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual age-specific rates and a multivariate time series model to forecast the curve parameters. These yield forecasts of future fertility curves, which are then used to compute age-specific fertility rate forecasts. This reduces the dimensionality of the forecasting problem and also guarantees that long-run projections of age-specific fertility rates will exhibit a smooth shape across age similar to historical data. Short-term projections are improved by also using simple techniques to forecast the deviations of the fitted curves from the actual rates. The article applies this approach to age-specific fertility data for U.S. white women from 1921–1984. The resulting forecasts are examined, and the multivariate model is used to investigate possible relations between the curve parameters, expressed as the total fertility rate, the mean age of childbearing, and the standard deviation of age at childbearing. The only strong relationship found is the contemporaneous relationship between the mean and standard deviation of age at childbearing. A variation of this approach, in conjunction with traditional demographic judgment, was used in a recent set of U.S. Census Bureau population projections. We discuss this implementation and compare the Census Bureau projections with those produced directly from the model presented here.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478822

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Forecasting aggregate discount window borrowing has posed difficulties for the Federal Reserve, due in part to outliers resulting from numerous institutional changes and special borrowing situations. This article applies bounded influence estimation and influence diagnostics to identify and adjust for outliers in the case of discount window borrowing. Since most banks borrow from the Federal Reserve infrequently, the model is nonlinear and of the switching regression class. We perform case-deletion diagnostics, modifying the empirical influence function of Reid and Crepeau (1985) for the nonlinear regression. The bounded influence estimator (BIE) extends Carroll and Ruppert (1985, 1987). Influence diagnostics and bounded influence estimation contribute to the investigation of discount window borrowing in a number of ways. Examination of weights generated by the estimator reveals that the BIE downweights observations during periods of known institutional change affecting the discount window. Consequently, the relative importance of institutional events can be inferred. Examples of institutional circumstances creating outliers in this application include the Monetary Control Act of 1980, the threatened bond defaults of late 1982, the February 1984 change to Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting, solvency problems of the Continental Bank of Illinois during 1984, and borrowing in May 1985 by Maryland thrift institutions affected by bank runs. Influence diagnostics in turn provide information concerning what parameter estimates have been most altered as a result. An interesting intuitive finding arises from use of the switching regression model: outlying observations tend to influence estimated parameters only from the same regime. When compared with maximum likelihood, we find that the BIE substantially alters some parameter estimates, including the estimated switchpoints. Identifying and correcting for outliers by the BIE improves the ability of the model to discriminate among regimes. Moreover, bounded influence estimation in discount window borrowing increases estimator efficiency, reduces residual pattern, discriminates outliers from large estimated residuals, and slightly improves the goodness of fit. The overall findings indicate that influence diagnostics and bounded influence estimation could significantly assist the Federal Reserve in explaining and predicting discount window borrowing.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478823

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Tierney and Kadane (1986) presented a simple second-order approximation for posterior expectations of positive functions. They used Laplace's method for asymptotic evaluation of integrals, in which the integrand is written asf(θ)exp(-nh(θ)) and the functionhis approximated by a quadratic. The form in which they applied Laplace's method, however, wasfully exponential: The integrand was written instead as exp[−nh(θ) + logf(θ)]; this allowed first-order approximations to be used in the numerator and denominator of a ratio of integrals to produce a second-order expansion for the ratio. Other second-order expansions (Hartigan 1965; Johnson 1970; Lindley 1961, 1980; Mosteller and Wallace 1964) require computation of more derivatives of the log-likelihood function. In this article we extend the fully exponential method to apply to expectations and variances of nonpositive functions. To obtain a second-order approximation to an expectationE(g(θ)), we use the fully exponential method to approximate the moment-generating functionE(exp(sg(θ))), whose integrand is positive, and then differentiate the result. This method is formally equivalent to that of Lindley and that of Mosteller and Wallace, yet does not require third derivatives of the likelihood function. It is also equivalent to another alternative approach to the approximation ofE(g(θ)): We may add a large constantctog(θ), apply the fully exponential method toE(c + g(θ)), and subtractc;on passing to the limit asctends to infinity we regain the approximation based on the moment-generating function. Furthermore, the second derivative of the logarithm of the approximationE(exp(sg(θ))), which is an approximate cumulant-generating function, yields a simple second-order approximation to the variance. In deriving these results we omit rigorous justification of formal manipulations, which may be found in Kass, Tierney, and Kadane (in press). Although our point of view is Bayesian, our results have applications to non-Bayesian inference as well (DiCiccio 1986).

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478824

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1989.10478825

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1989

数据来源: Taylor